Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

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Parry Sound-Muskoka

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +3.1%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 66.9%
Voters · 2025 64,652
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.95× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    66.9%
  • CPC CPC
    33.1%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +2.3
    45.0% ±9.7
  • CPC CPC -10.1
    42.0% ±9.6
  • NDP NDP +4.0
    7.6% ±5.2
  • GPC GPC +3.1
    3.1% ±3.4
  • PPC PPC +0.0
    1.6% ±2.9
  • OTH OTH +0.7
    0.7% ±2.9

Past elections in Parry Sound-Muskoka

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +9.3% — Scott Aitchison
64,652 votes
  • CPC Scott Aitchison 52.0% Won
  • LPC Geordie Sabbagh 42.8%
  • NDP Heather Hay 3.6%
  • PPC Isabel Pereira 1.6%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Parry Sound-Muskoka demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 3.6%
    • 5 to 9 years 4.0%
    • 10 to 14 years 4.3%
    • 15 to 19 years 4.2%
    • 20 to 24 years 4.0%
    • 25 to 29 years 4.6%
    • 30 to 34 years 5.1%
    • 35 to 39 years 5.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 4.8%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.0%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.1%
    • 55 to 59 years 9.3%
    • 60 to 64 years 10.3%
    • 65 to 69 years 9.4%
    • 70 to 74 years 7.6%
    • 75 to 79 years 5.4%
    • 80 to 84 years 3.6%
    • 85 years and over 3.4%

Average age

48.9

Riding value

Median age

54.4

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.6

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.7

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $35,600

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 20.9%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

11.4%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.356

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 102,785

  • English only 94.3%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 5.6%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 102,785

  • English 95.9%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.5%
  • English and French 0.7%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.6%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 101,265

    • English 99.9%
    • French 5.6%
    • Indigenous languages 0.4%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 6.5%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 5.4%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 2.4%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 26.9%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $960
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,202

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 101,265

  • Non-immigrants 91.9%
    • Before 1980 4.6%
    • 1980 to 1990 1.0%
    • Other (3 <1%) 2.1%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.3%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 101,270

  • First generation 8.6%
  • Second generation 14.6%
  • Third generation or more 76.8%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 3,135

    • Principal applicants 21.2%
    • Secondary applicants 21.5%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 45.8%
  • Refugees 9.1%
  • Other immigrants 2.2%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Other (12 <1%) 2.5%
  • Not a visible minority 97.5%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 101,265

  • English 35.7%
  • Scottish 26.9%
  • Irish 25.6%
  • Canadian 17.2%
  • German 13.1%
  • French, n.o.s. 9.1%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 6.1%
  • Dutch 4.9%
  • Italian 3.6%
  • Polish 3.2%
  • Ukrainian 2.8%
  • Welsh 2.4%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.0%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 1.9%
  • Métis 1.7%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.7%
  • French Canadian 1.4%
  • American 1.2%
  • Ojibway 1.1%
  • Russian 1.0%
  • Hungarian 1.0%
  • Swiss 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 101,265

  • Buddhist 0.2%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 7.6%
    • Anabaptist 0.3%
    • Anglican 7.9%
    • Baptist 2.3%
    • Catholic 14.2%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.4%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.5%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 1.0%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.3%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.2%
    • Presbyterian 3.2%
    • Reformed 0.1%
    • United Church 10.5%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 3.4%
  • Hindu 0.2%
  • Jewish 0.4%
  • Muslim 0.1%
  • Sikh 0.1%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.3%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.7%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 45.3%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 16.1%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 32.3%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 33.5%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 18.1%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 40.3

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.5%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 13.4%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 4.5%
    • 3 Health occupations 7.0%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 10.8%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.4%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 26.1%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 25.4%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 3.2%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 4.1%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 102,785

  • English 98.7%
  • French 1.1%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 102,785

    • Official languages 94.4%
    • Non-official languages 4.7%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.0%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 102,785

    • Official languages 98.4%
    • Non-official languages 1.1%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 102,785

  • None 97.0%
  • English 0.5%
  • French 0.5%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.5%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 7,820

  • Under 5 years 15.1%
  • 5 to 14 years 20.6%
  • 15 to 24 years 23.2%
  • 25 to 44 years 35.3%
  • 45 years and over 5.8%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 7,820

    • United States of America 9.4%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.4%
    • Other (9 <1%) 3.2%
    • United Kingdom 29.4%
    • Germany 11.3%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 9.3%
    • Netherlands 5.1%
    • Poland 4.0%
    • Italy 3.3%
    • Portugal 1.7%
    • Hungary 1.2%
    • Other (8 <1%) 4.8%
    • South Africa, Republic of 1.4%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.1%
    • Other (8 <1%) 0.4%
    • India 2.7%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.4%
    • Philippines 1.6%
    • Korea, South 1.2%
    • Other (13 <1%) 3.4%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.8%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 355

    • United States of America 14.1%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 4.2%
    • Other (6 <1%) 1.4%
    • United Kingdom 11.3%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 9.9%
    • Italy 4.2%
    • Germany 2.8%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.0%
    • South Africa, Republic of 2.8%
    • Other (14 <1%) 0.0%
    • India 23.9%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 5.6%
    • Philippines 4.2%
    • Other (19 <1%) 12.8%
    • Australia 2.8%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 3,135

  • Asylum claim before admission 3.0%
  • Work permits only before admission 19.3%
  • Study permits only before admission 1.9%
  • Work and study permits before admission 4.9%
  • Other permits before admission 2.6%
  • No pre-admission experience 68.3%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 54,265

  • English 98.4%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.0%
  • English and French 0.9%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.5%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 54,265

    • Official languages 99.7%
    • Non-official languages 0.1%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.2%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 54,265

  • None 98.7%
  • English 0.1%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.2%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 15,370

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 6.4%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.6%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 11,265

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.3%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.3%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.5%

RIDING ID · 202335084