Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · OTT

Ottawa Centre

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +23.9%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 81,364
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.85× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    100.0%
  • NDP NDP
    0.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC -7.9
    54.9% ±9.1
  • NDP NDP +11.4
    30.9% ±8.5
  • CPC CPC -6.8
    8.9% ±5.2
  • GPC GPC +2.2
    3.3% ±3.3
  • OTH OTH +0.3
    1.2% ±2.8
  • PPC PPC +0.8
    0.8% ±2.8

Past elections in Ottawa Centre

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +43.2% — Yasir Naqvi
81,364 votes
  • LPC Yasir Naqvi 62.7% Won
  • NDP Joel Harden 19.6%
  • CPC Paul D'Orsonnens 15.6%
  • GPC Amanda Rosenstock 1.1%
  • CFP Andrea Chabot 0.3%
  • CHP Marie-Chantal Leriche 0.3%
  • COM-ML Cashton Perry 0.2%
  • IND Mike Salmon 0.1%
  • +1 more candidates

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Ottawa Centre demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 3.6%
    • 5 to 9 years 3.8%
    • 10 to 14 years 3.7%
    • 15 to 19 years 4.2%
    • 20 to 24 years 9.1%
    • 25 to 29 years 11.6%
    • 30 to 34 years 9.3%
    • 35 to 39 years 7.6%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.3%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.9%
    • 50 to 54 years 5.9%
    • 55 to 59 years 6.3%
    • 60 to 64 years 5.8%
    • 65 to 69 years 5.1%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.6%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.0%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.1%
    • 85 years and over 2.1%

Average age

41.3

Riding value

Median age

38

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.7

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.7

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $46,800

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 9.5%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

12.6%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.424

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 125,045

  • English only 57.5%
  • French only 0.7%
  • English and French 40.3%
  • Neither English nor French 1.4%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 125,045

  • English 69.6%
  • French 3.2%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 4.6%
  • English and French 7.8%
  • English and non-official language(s) 11.7%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.5%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 2.4%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.4%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 123,830

    • English 97.9%
    • French 41.1%
    • Indigenous languages 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 29.8%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 2.5%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.7%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 34.5%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,640
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,914

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 123,835

  • Non-immigrants 74.6%
    • Before 1980 4.9%
    • 1980 to 1990 2.6%
    • 1991 to 2000 4.1%
    • 2001 to 2010 4.4%
    • 2011 to 2021 5.3%
  • Non-permanent residents 4.1%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 123,835

  • First generation 27.5%
  • Second generation 21.6%
  • Third generation or more 50.9%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 20,290

    • Principal applicants 22.5%
    • Secondary applicants 27.0%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 27.3%
  • Refugees 22.0%
  • Other immigrants 1.2%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 4.1%
    • Chinese 4.5%
    • Black 5.4%
    • Filipino 0.8%
    • Arab 2.8%
    • Latin American 1.5%
    • Southeast Asian 1.7%
    • West Asian 1.1%
    • Korean 0.6%
    • Japanese 0.3%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 0.3%
    • Multiple visible minorities 0.9%
  • Not a visible minority 75.9%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 123,830

  • Irish 23.2%
  • Scottish 20.6%
  • English 19.9%
  • French, n.o.s. 14.2%
  • German 9.7%
  • Canadian 8.8%
  • Italian 5.7%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 5.3%
  • Chinese 4.8%
  • Polish 3.9%
  • Ukrainian 3.2%
  • Dutch 3.2%
  • French Canadian 3.0%
  • Indian (India) 2.9%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.3%
  • European, n.o.s. 2.2%
  • Welsh 2.2%
  • Jewish 2.1%
  • Russian 1.9%
  • American 1.7%
  • Lebanese 1.4%
  • Spanish 1.2%
  • Vietnamese 1.2%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 1.0%
  • Métis 1.0%
  • Norwegian 1.0%
  • Swedish 1.0%
  • Hungarian 1.0%
  • African, n.o.s. 1.0%
  • Arab, n.o.s. 1.0%
  • Greek 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 123,830

  • Buddhist 1.2%
    • Catholic 23.5%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 5.0%
    • Anglican 4.2%
    • United Church 3.4%
    • Christian Orthodox 2.1%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 1.8%
    • Presbyterian 1.0%
    • Other (8 <1%) 2.1%
  • Hindu 1.4%
  • Jewish 1.9%
  • Muslim 4.9%
  • Sikh 0.3%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.1%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 1.1%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 46.1%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 7.9%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 18.0%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 16.6%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 57.5%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 42.3

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 2.2%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 20.0%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 14.4%
    • 3 Health occupations 6.9%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 23.9%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 5.5%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 17.3%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 6.1%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0.6%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 0.7%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 125,045

  • English 86.6%
  • French 10.2%
  • English and French 1.8%
  • Neither English nor French 1.4%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 125,045

    • Official languages 75.2%
    • Non-official languages 19.4%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.3%
    • English and French 2.2%
    • Other (3 <1%) 0.9%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 125,045

    • Official languages 86.7%
    • Non-official languages 8.9%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.3%
    • English and French 1.6%
    • Other (3 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 125,045

  • None 80.8%
  • English 4.6%
  • French 5.3%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 6.3%
  • English and French 0.3%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • French and non-official language(s) 1.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.8%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 26,360

  • Under 5 years 10.7%
  • 5 to 14 years 18.6%
  • 15 to 24 years 18.1%
  • 25 to 44 years 43.2%
  • 45 years and over 9.5%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 26,360

    • United States of America 6.0%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.4%
    • Haiti 1.1%
    • Jamaica 1.0%
    • Mexico 1.0%
    • Other (6 <1%) 3.4%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.1%
    • Croatia 0.5%
    • France 1.7%
    • Germany 1.8%
    • Greece 0.6%
    • Hungary 0.4%
    • Italy 3.4%
    • Netherlands 0.8%
    • Poland 2.0%
    • Portugal 0.6%
    • Romania 1.2%
    • Russian Federation 1.4%
    • Serbia 0.8%
    • Ukraine 1.0%
    • United Kingdom 9.3%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 5.2%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 5.0%
    • Ethiopia 1.3%
    • Morocco 1.1%
    • Somalia 1.1%
    • Egypt 1.0%
    • Other (5 <1%) 2.9%
    • Afghanistan 0.6%
    • Iran 2.9%
    • Iraq 1.3%
    • Lebanon 2.5%
    • Syria 1.7%
    • Turkey 0.6%
    • China 6.7%
    • Hong Kong 1.3%
    • Korea, South 1.6%
    • Taiwan 0.5%
    • Philippines 2.7%
    • Viet Nam 3.2%
    • Bangladesh 0.9%
    • India 4.4%
    • Pakistan 1.1%
    • Sri Lanka 0.8%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 6.3%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.9%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 4,285

    • Brazil 2.6%
    • Colombia 1.1%
    • Haiti 1.4%
    • Jamaica 0.6%
    • Mexico 1.5%
    • United States of America 6.3%
    • Venezuela 0.4%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.2%
    • France 2.2%
    • Germany 1.1%
    • Ireland 0.6%
    • Italy 0.4%
    • Russian Federation 1.3%
    • Ukraine 0.6%
    • United Kingdom 3.2%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 5.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 5.1%
    • Morocco 3.6%
    • Nigeria 2.3%
    • Eritrea 1.4%
    • Algeria 1.3%
    • Ethiopia 1.3%
    • Other (9 <1%) 5.5%
    • Afghanistan 1.8%
    • Bangladesh 1.5%
    • China 3.2%
    • Hong Kong 0.4%
    • India 9.0%
    • Iran 2.5%
    • Iraq 2.3%
    • Israel 0.4%
    • Japan 0.2%
    • Jordan 0.8%
    • Korea, South 1.6%
    • Lebanon 2.0%
    • Nepal 0.5%
    • Pakistan 1.5%
    • Philippines 4.0%
    • Saudi Arabia 1.3%
    • Sri Lanka 0
    • Syria 7.2%
    • Turkey 1.6%
    • United Arab Emirates 1.3%
    • Viet Nam 0.8%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.9%
    • Australia 0.7%
    • Other places of birth 0.5%

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 20,290

  • Asylum claim before admission 7.6%
  • Work permits only before admission 10.7%
  • Study permits only before admission 4.8%
  • Work and study permits before admission 9.1%
  • Other permits before admission 0.6%
  • No pre-admission experience 67.2%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 81,020

  • English 74.3%
  • French 1.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.3%
  • English and French 21.9%
  • English and non-official language(s) 1.7%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 81,020

    • Official languages 96.5%
    • Non-official languages 0.7%
    • English and French 2.5%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.4%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 81,020

  • None 78.6%
  • English 2.0%
  • French 17.7%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.1%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.4%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 16,935

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 31.6%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 68.5%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 12,115

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 21.3%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 10.0%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 68.6%

RIDING ID · 202335079