Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · CON

New Tecumseth-Gwillimbury

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +9.6%.

CPC
Projected winner
CPC
Win prob 91.4%
Voters · 2025 66,124
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.94× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • CPC CPC
    91.4%
  • LPC LPC
    8.6%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • CPC CPC -8.9
    50.5% ±9.7
  • LPC LPC +3.9
    40.8% ±9.5
  • NDP NDP +3.2
    5.0% ±4.2
  • GPC GPC +0.6
    1.7% ±2.9
  • PPC PPC +0.5
    1.3% ±2.9
  • OTH OTH +0.7
    0.7% ±2.9

Past elections in New Tecumseth-Gwillimbury

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +22.4% — Scot Davidson
66,124 votes
  • CPC Scot Davidson 59.4% Won
  • LPC Mike Hanrahan 37.0%
  • NDP Nancy Morrison 1.8%
  • GPC Callum McKinnon 1.1%
  • PPC Paul Montague 0.8%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

New Tecumseth-Gwillimbury demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 6.8%
    • 5 to 9 years 6.7%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.4%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.5%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.2%
    • 25 to 29 years 5.7%
    • 30 to 34 years 7.4%
    • 35 to 39 years 8.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.9%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.5%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.6%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.1%
    • 60 to 64 years 6.2%
    • 65 to 69 years 4.8%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.1%
    • 75 to 79 years 2.8%
    • 80 to 84 years 1.8%
    • 85 years and over 1.7%

Average age

39.3

Riding value

Median age

38.8

Riding value

Average size of census families

3.1

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $40,000

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 16.8%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

6.1%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.292

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,150

  • English only 92.6%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 5.1%
  • Neither English nor French 2.2%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,150

  • English 74.1%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 6.7%
  • English and French 0.8%
  • English and non-official language(s) 17.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.5%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.7%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 117,780

    • English 97.7%
    • French 5.1%
    • Indigenous languages 0
    • Non-Indigenous languages 33.5%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 1.5%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.4%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 30.1%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,960
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,992

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 117,785

  • Non-immigrants 72.8%
    • Before 1980 5.8%
    • 1980 to 1990 3.4%
    • 1991 to 2000 5.5%
    • 2001 to 2010 6.0%
    • 2011 to 2021 5.6%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.8%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 117,780

  • First generation 27.9%
  • Second generation 28.2%
  • Third generation or more 43.9%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 24,175

    • Principal applicants 15.4%
    • Secondary applicants 25.2%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 34.5%
  • Refugees 22.6%
  • Other immigrants 2.3%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 6.1%
    • Chinese 4.0%
    • Black 3.3%
    • Filipino 1.4%
    • Arab 1.2%
    • Latin American 2.6%
    • Southeast Asian 1.7%
    • West Asian 2.9%
    • Korean 0.5%
    • Japanese 0.1%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 0.8%
    • Multiple visible minorities 1.0%
  • Not a visible minority 74.4%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 117,785

  • English 18.9%
  • Irish 15.1%
  • Scottish 14.1%
  • Canadian 13.8%
  • Italian 13.2%
  • German 6.5%
  • Portuguese 5.4%
  • French, n.o.s. 4.5%
  • Chinese 4.2%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 4.0%
  • Dutch 3.5%
  • Polish 3.2%
  • Ukrainian 2.7%
  • Indian (India) 2.4%
  • Russian 2.1%
  • Filipino 1.5%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.4%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.4%
  • Greek 1.4%
  • Welsh 1.3%
  • Spanish 1.2%
  • Pakistani 1.2%
  • Jamaican 1.2%
  • Vietnamese 1.1%
  • Afghan 1.1%
  • French Canadian 1.0%
  • American 1.0%
  • Hungarian 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 117,785

  • Buddhist 1.3%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 8.0%
    • Anabaptist 0.0%
    • Anglican 3.9%
    • Baptist 1.2%
    • Catholic 31.7%
    • Christian Orthodox 2.9%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.4%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 0.7%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.3%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.2%
    • Presbyterian 1.6%
    • Reformed 0.3%
    • United Church 4.3%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.2%
  • Hindu 2.5%
  • Jewish 0.9%
  • Muslim 4.3%
  • Sikh 1.0%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.5%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 30.7%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 16.5%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 30.4%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 31.2%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 21.9%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.6

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.2%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 17.3%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 7.1%
    • 3 Health occupations 5.5%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 10.3%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.6%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 22.6%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 22.1%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 2.8%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 6.6%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,150

  • English 96.5%
  • French 0.9%
  • English and French 0.4%
  • Neither English nor French 2.2%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,150

    • Official languages 71.5%
    • Non-official languages 24.4%
    • English and non-official language(s) 3.2%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.9%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,150

    • Official languages 83.0%
    • Non-official languages 13.1%
    • English and non-official language(s) 3.5%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.3%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,150

  • None 84.1%
  • English 5.1%
  • French 0.6%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 8.3%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.8%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.7%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 31,045

  • Under 5 years 9.4%
  • 5 to 14 years 20.8%
  • 15 to 24 years 23.6%
  • 25 to 44 years 39.0%
  • 45 years and over 7.2%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 31,045

    • Other places of birth in Americas 4.7%
    • Jamaica 2.4%
    • United States of America 2.2%
    • Guyana 1.5%
    • Other (7 <1%) 4.2%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.1%
    • Croatia 0.3%
    • France 0.3%
    • Germany 1.7%
    • Greece 0.7%
    • Hungary 0.6%
    • Italy 5.5%
    • Netherlands 0.7%
    • Poland 1.8%
    • Portugal 6.7%
    • Romania 1.1%
    • Russian Federation 2.4%
    • Serbia 0.2%
    • Ukraine 2.4%
    • United Kingdom 7.1%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.1%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.2%
    • Nigeria 1.0%
    • Other (8 <1%) 1.0%
    • Afghanistan 2.4%
    • Iran 3.8%
    • Iraq 3.5%
    • Lebanon 0.4%
    • Syria 0.7%
    • Turkey 0.9%
    • China 7.3%
    • Hong Kong 1.8%
    • Korea, South 1.0%
    • Taiwan 0.3%
    • Philippines 3.5%
    • Viet Nam 2.6%
    • Bangladesh 0.1%
    • India 5.3%
    • Pakistan 3.5%
    • Sri Lanka 3.8%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 5.1%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.3%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 3,040

    • Brazil 3.8%
    • Colombia 1.2%
    • Haiti 0
    • Jamaica 1.0%
    • Mexico 1.6%
    • United States of America 3.0%
    • Venezuela 0.5%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.8%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 8.1%
    • Ukraine 3.5%
    • Russian Federation 3.1%
    • United Kingdom 1.8%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.8%
    • Nigeria 2.5%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.8%
    • Other (13 <1%) 1.5%
    • Afghanistan 2.1%
    • Bangladesh 0
    • China 8.4%
    • Hong Kong 2.0%
    • India 10.4%
    • Iran 2.8%
    • Iraq 4.3%
    • Israel 2.1%
    • Japan 0
    • Jordan 0
    • Korea, South 0.3%
    • Lebanon 0
    • Nepal 0
    • Pakistan 8.9%
    • Philippines 5.8%
    • Saudi Arabia 0.3%
    • Sri Lanka 2.3%
    • Syria 4.4%
    • Turkey 2.0%
    • United Arab Emirates 0.5%
    • Viet Nam 0.7%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.6%
    • Australia 0.3%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 24,175

  • Asylum claim before admission 10.3%
  • Work permits only before admission 8.6%
  • Study permits only before admission 2.1%
  • Work and study permits before admission 4.0%
  • Other permits before admission 0.7%
  • No pre-admission experience 74.4%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 68,105

  • English 95.0%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.8%
  • English and French 1.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 68,105

    • Official languages 97.7%
    • Non-official languages 1.4%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.8%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 68,105

  • None 96.7%
  • English 0.6%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.6%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 28,110

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 6.8%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.2%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 19,475

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.1%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 3.1%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 92.8%

RIDING ID · 202335069