Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · TOR

Humber River-Black Creek

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +29.9%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 38,398
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.24× (mod)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    100.0%
  • CPC CPC
    0.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +1.8
    57.4% ±11.4
  • CPC CPC -8.3
    27.5% ±10.3
  • NDP NDP +5.5
    11.9% ±7.5
  • PPC PPC -0.3
    1.4% ±3.5
  • GPC GPC +1.0
    1.0% ±3.5
  • OTH OTH +0.2
    0.8% ±3.5

Past elections in Humber River-Black Creek

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +19.8% — Judy Sgro
38,398 votes
  • LPC Judy Sgro 55.6% Won
  • CPC Bijay Paudel 35.8%
  • NDP Matias de Dovitiis 6.4%
  • PPC Marek Jasinski 1.6%
  • COM-ML Jeanne McGuire 0.6%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Humber River-Black Creek demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.2%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.6%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.0%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.4%
    • 20 to 24 years 8.4%
    • 25 to 29 years 7.9%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.7%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.6%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.3%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.1%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.8%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.0%
    • 60 to 64 years 6.0%
    • 65 to 69 years 4.3%
    • 70 to 74 years 3.6%
    • 75 to 79 years 2.6%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.3%
    • 85 years and over 2.3%

Average age

39.4

Riding value

Median age

38

Riding value

Average size of census families

3.1

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.9

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $29,800

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 33.1%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

15.2%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.285

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,270

  • English only 90.2%
  • French only 0.1%
  • English and French 3.0%
  • Neither English nor French 6.7%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,270

  • English 45.6%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 17.3%
  • English and French 0.5%
  • English and non-official language(s) 33.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • Multiple non-official languages 2.0%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 111,205

    • English 93.1%
    • French 3.2%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 63.9%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 0.4%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.1%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 51.5%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,460
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,622

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 111,200

  • Non-immigrants 36.8%
    • Before 1980 9.0%
    • 1980 to 1990 7.7%
    • 1991 to 2000 12.2%
    • 2001 to 2010 12.2%
    • 2011 to 2021 15.3%
  • Non-permanent residents 6.8%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 111,200

  • First generation 63.8%
  • Second generation 29.7%
  • Third generation or more 6.6%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 52,680

    • Principal applicants 12.7%
    • Secondary applicants 14.0%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 42.9%
  • Refugees 27.7%
  • Other immigrants 2.7%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 13.8%
    • Chinese 2.4%
    • Black 24.6%
    • Filipino 8.0%
    • Arab 1.7%
    • Latin American 9.0%
    • Southeast Asian 10.2%
    • West Asian 1.7%
    • Korean 0.5%
    • Japanese 0.1%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 3.2%
    • Multiple visible minorities 3.2%
  • Not a visible minority 21.8%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 111,200

  • Italian 10.2%
  • Vietnamese 8.1%
  • Filipino 7.3%
  • Indian (India) 5.9%
  • Jamaican 5.3%
  • Canadian 5.2%
  • African, n.o.s. 4.6%
  • Chinese 4.0%
  • Guyanese 2.5%
  • Pakistani 2.3%
  • Spanish 2.2%
  • Portuguese 2.1%
  • Nigerian 2.1%
  • English 1.9%
  • Asian, n.o.s. 1.7%
  • Black, n.o.s. 1.7%
  • Somali 1.7%
  • Latin, Central or South American, n.o.s. 1.6%
  • Ecuadorian 1.4%
  • Irish 1.3%
  • Scottish 1.3%
  • Sri Lankan 1.3%
  • Ghanaian 1.3%
  • Iraqi 1.1%
  • Salvadorean 1.1%
  • Caribbean, n.o.s. 1.1%
  • Christian, n.i.e. 1.0%
  • Tamil 1.0%
  • Turkish 1.0%
  • African Caribbean 1.0%
  • West Indian, n.o.s. 1.0%
  • Yoruba 1.0%
  • Cambodian (Khmer) 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 111,205

  • Buddhist 6.1%
    • Catholic 32.6%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 15.3%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 3.4%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.0%
    • Christian Orthodox 1.7%
    • Anglican 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 2.9%
  • Hindu 7.1%
  • Jewish 0.2%
  • Muslim 10.5%
  • Sikh 1.7%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.4%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 15.2%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 27.8%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 31.1%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 23.5%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 17.7%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 38.4

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.3%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 13.5%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 4.7%
    • 3 Health occupations 7.7%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 7.5%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1.7%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 26.8%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 20.0%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0.7%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 12.3%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,270

  • English 92.4%
  • French 0.6%
  • English and French 0.4%
  • Neither English nor French 6.6%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,270

    • Official languages 44.8%
    • Non-official languages 47.3%
    • English and non-official language(s) 6.9%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.0%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,270

    • Official languages 58.3%
    • Non-official languages 32.4%
    • English and non-official language(s) 8.8%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,270

  • None 70.9%
  • English 11.3%
  • French 0.4%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 13.7%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.3%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 62,700

  • Under 5 years 5.4%
  • 5 to 14 years 14.7%
  • 15 to 24 years 25.8%
  • 25 to 44 years 43.4%
  • 45 years and over 10.7%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 62,700

    • Other places of birth in Americas 9.7%
    • Jamaica 7.5%
    • Guyana 5.7%
    • El Salvador 1.8%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 1.2%
    • Other (6 <1%) 3.1%
    • Italy 8.7%
    • Portugal 1.6%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 1.0%
    • Other (13 <1%) 3.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 4.2%
    • Nigeria 3.4%
    • Somalia 1.4%
    • Other (7 <1%) 1.7%
    • Afghanistan 0.5%
    • Iran 0.2%
    • Iraq 3.3%
    • Lebanon 0.1%
    • Syria 0.4%
    • Turkey 1.2%
    • China 1.1%
    • Hong Kong 0.2%
    • Korea, South 0.6%
    • Taiwan 0.1%
    • Philippines 11.7%
    • Viet Nam 10.9%
    • Bangladesh 0.8%
    • India 5.2%
    • Pakistan 3.7%
    • Sri Lanka 2.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.2%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.1%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 8,885

    • Other places of birth in Americas 10.2%
    • Jamaica 4.8%
    • United States of America 1.6%
    • Other (5 <1%) 2.3%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 2.2%
    • Other (7 <1%) 1.3%
    • Nigeria 10.5%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 4.1%
    • Eritrea 3.4%
    • Somalia 1.1%
    • Other (11 <1%) 2.3%
    • Philippines 23.3%
    • India 8.9%
    • Viet Nam 5.9%
    • Pakistan 5.2%
    • Iraq 3.4%
    • Turkey 2.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.0%
    • Sri Lanka 1.6%
    • Syria 1.4%
    • Other (13 <1%) 1.9%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 52,680

  • Asylum claim before admission 13.8%
  • Work permits only before admission 10.7%
  • Study permits only before admission 1.1%
  • Work and study permits before admission 3.1%
  • Other permits before admission 0.6%
  • No pre-admission experience 70.6%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 56,195

  • English 91.2%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.6%
  • English and French 0.8%
  • English and non-official language(s) 6.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 56,195

    • Official languages 95.8%
    • Non-official languages 2.8%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.2%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.2%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 56,195

  • None 94.1%
  • English 1.1%
  • French 0.5%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 3.7%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.5%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 23,265

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 7.8%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 92.2%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 17,030

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 6.3%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.2%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 91.5%

RIDING ID · 202335041