Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

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Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +9.9%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 92.2%
Voters · 2025 67,458
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.93× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    92.2%
  • CPC CPC
    7.8%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +2.8
    49.3% ±9.6
  • CPC CPC -9.3
    39.4% ±9.4
  • NDP NDP +4.1
    7.7% ±5.2
  • GPC GPC +1.4
    1.4% ±2.9
  • PPC PPC +0.3
    1.4% ±2.9
  • OTH OTH +0.7
    0.7% ±2.9

Past elections in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +2.2% — Nenad Kuruc
67,458 votes
  • CPC Nenad Kuruc 48.7% Won
  • LPC Chad Collins 46.5%
  • NDP Nayla Mithani 3.6%
  • PPC Jim Boutsikakis 1.1%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.5%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.8%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.9%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.7%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.8%
    • 25 to 29 years 6.4%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.9%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.9%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.3%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.1%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.5%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.1%
    • 60 to 64 years 6.6%
    • 65 to 69 years 5.6%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.9%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.3%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.5%
    • 85 years and over 2.3%

Average age

41.3

Riding value

Median age

40.8

Riding value

Average size of census families

3

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $36,400

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 21.5%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

9.7%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.302

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 126,100

  • English only 93.2%
  • French only 0.1%
  • English and French 4.4%
  • Neither English nor French 2.3%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 126,100

  • English 67.5%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 8.6%
  • English and French 0.7%
  • English and non-official language(s) 21.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.5%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.6%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 125,405

    • English 97.7%
    • French 4.4%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 40.4%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 1.8%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.7%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 31.8%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,510
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,612

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 125,400

  • Non-immigrants 66.9%
    • Before 1980 8.5%
    • 1980 to 1990 3.5%
    • 1991 to 2000 6.7%
    • 2001 to 2010 6.0%
    • 2011 to 2021 7.1%
  • Non-permanent residents 1.3%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 125,405

  • First generation 33.7%
  • Second generation 27.1%
  • Third generation or more 39.2%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 29,330

    • Principal applicants 13.6%
    • Secondary applicants 21.9%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 31.3%
  • Refugees 31.2%
  • Other immigrants 2.0%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 10.2%
    • Chinese 0.7%
    • Black 4.9%
    • Filipino 1.6%
    • Arab 3.0%
    • Latin American 2.1%
    • Southeast Asian 1.8%
    • West Asian 1.1%
    • Korean 0.3%
    • Japanese 0.1%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 0.5%
    • Multiple visible minorities 1.0%
  • Not a visible minority 72.7%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 125,405

  • English 15.1%
  • Italian 14.0%
  • Scottish 12.2%
  • Canadian 11.5%
  • Irish 11.1%
  • Polish 5.7%
  • German 5.5%
  • Indian (India) 4.9%
  • French, n.o.s. 4.7%
  • Croatian 3.7%
  • Serbian 3.7%
  • Ukrainian 3.0%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 2.9%
  • Portuguese 2.7%
  • Dutch 2.6%
  • Pakistani 2.5%
  • Hungarian 1.6%
  • Filipino 1.5%
  • Jamaican 1.5%
  • Punjabi 1.3%
  • Bosnian 1.2%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.1%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.1%
  • Welsh 1.1%
  • Spanish 1.1%
  • Arab, n.o.s. 1.1%
  • Chinese 1.0%
  • French Canadian 1.0%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 1.0%
  • African, n.o.s. 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 125,405

  • Buddhist 0.9%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 6.1%
    • Anabaptist 0.1%
    • Anglican 3.0%
    • Baptist 0.7%
    • Catholic 34.7%
    • Christian Orthodox 5.7%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.4%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 0.4%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.1%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.2%
    • Presbyterian 1.4%
    • Reformed 0.2%
    • United Church 2.6%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.0%
  • Hindu 2.4%
  • Jewish 0.1%
  • Muslim 9.0%
  • Sikh 3.2%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.4%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 25.0%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 19.5%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 29.5%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 30.6%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 20.4%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.3

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 15.7%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 6.9%
    • 3 Health occupations 8.1%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 10.2%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1.9%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 25.8%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 19.4%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0.9%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 7.3%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 126,100

  • English 96.2%
  • French 1.1%
  • English and French 0.4%
  • Neither English nor French 2.3%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 126,100

    • Official languages 64.6%
    • Non-official languages 30.7%
    • English and non-official language(s) 3.9%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.8%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 126,100

    • Official languages 77.8%
    • Non-official languages 16.9%
    • English and non-official language(s) 4.9%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.4%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 126,100

  • None 80.7%
  • English 6.9%
  • French 0.5%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 9.7%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.9%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 39,940

  • Under 5 years 10.0%
  • 5 to 14 years 18.9%
  • 15 to 24 years 23.6%
  • 25 to 44 years 40.0%
  • 45 years and over 7.6%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 39,940

    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.5%
    • Jamaica 2.3%
    • United States of America 1.9%
    • Colombia 1.3%
    • Other (7 <1%) 3.2%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.7%
    • Croatia 6.6%
    • France 0.2%
    • Germany 1.4%
    • Greece 0.6%
    • Hungary 0.6%
    • Italy 7.8%
    • Netherlands 0.6%
    • Poland 5.4%
    • Portugal 2.4%
    • Romania 1.3%
    • Russian Federation 0.4%
    • Serbia 3.1%
    • Ukraine 0.5%
    • United Kingdom 5.3%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.1%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 2.3%
    • Nigeria 1.5%
    • Other (8 <1%) 1.8%
    • India 12.0%
    • Pakistan 6.4%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 5.6%
    • Philippines 3.5%
    • Iraq 3.2%
    • Viet Nam 1.5%
    • Syria 1.4%
    • China 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 3.4%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.2%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 4,920

    • United States of America 3.6%
    • Jamaica 3.5%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.6%
    • Colombia 1.3%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.7%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 10.2%
    • United Kingdom 1.4%
    • Other (6 <1%) 1.4%
    • Nigeria 6.8%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.8%
    • Egypt 1.7%
    • Other (12 <1%) 2.0%
    • India 22.7%
    • Syria 8.2%
    • Pakistan 7.1%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 6.2%
    • Philippines 5.4%
    • Iraq 5.1%
    • United Arab Emirates 1.6%
    • China 1.5%
    • Other (14 <1%) 4.2%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 29,330

  • Asylum claim before admission 9.1%
  • Work permits only before admission 6.3%
  • Study permits only before admission 1.8%
  • Work and study permits before admission 3.2%
  • Other permits before admission 0.7%
  • No pre-admission experience 78.9%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 67,160

  • English 95.1%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.5%
  • English and French 0.9%
  • English and non-official language(s) 3.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 67,160

    • Official languages 98.3%
    • Non-official languages 0.9%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.8%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 67,160

  • None 96.5%
  • English 0.5%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.9%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.3%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 26,640

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 6.7%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.3%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 19,215

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.2%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.9%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 92.9%

RIDING ID · 202335037