Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

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Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +29.7%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 65,338
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.95× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    100.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +2.9
    60.3% ±9.5
  • CPC CPC -8.2
    30.6% ±9.0
  • NDP NDP +3.4
    5.9% ±4.6
  • GPC GPC +1.5
    1.5% ±2.9
  • PPC PPC +0.3
    1.2% ±2.9

Past elections in Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +18.6% — James Maloney
65,338 votes
  • LPC James Maloney 57.4% Won
  • CPC Bernard Trottier 38.8%
  • NDP Cory Wagar 2.5%
  • PPC Thomas Fanjoy 0.9%
  • MLPC Janice Murray 0.3%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Etobicoke-Lakeshore demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 4.8%
    • 5 to 9 years 4.5%
    • 10 to 14 years 4.1%
    • 15 to 19 years 3.7%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.0%
    • 25 to 29 years 7.8%
    • 30 to 34 years 9.6%
    • 35 to 39 years 8.8%
    • 40 to 44 years 7.4%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.8%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.7%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.1%
    • 60 to 64 years 6.6%
    • 65 to 69 years 5.5%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.4%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.0%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.1%
    • 85 years and over 2.2%

Average age

42.3

Riding value

Median age

41.2

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.7

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.6

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $42,800

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 11.8%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

10.4%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.425

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,645

  • English only 88.1%
  • French only 0.1%
  • English and French 9.6%
  • Neither English nor French 2.2%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,645

  • English 64.7%
  • French 0.3%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 8.5%
  • English and French 1.4%
  • English and non-official language(s) 23.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 1.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.8%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 119,240

    • English 97.7%
    • French 9.6%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 46.1%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 1.1%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.3%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 39.6%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,900
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $2,142

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 119,240

  • Non-immigrants 59.5%
    • Before 1980 8.3%
    • 1980 to 1990 4.9%
    • 1991 to 2000 7.2%
    • 2001 to 2010 7.9%
    • 2011 to 2021 9.0%
  • Non-permanent residents 3.4%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 119,240

  • First generation 41.5%
  • Second generation 28.2%
  • Third generation or more 30.3%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 34,505

    • Principal applicants 22.5%
    • Secondary applicants 27.2%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 28.7%
  • Refugees 20.3%
  • Other immigrants 1.3%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 6.8%
    • Chinese 4.0%
    • Black 5.0%
    • Filipino 3.0%
    • Arab 1.2%
    • Latin American 3.1%
    • Southeast Asian 1.5%
    • West Asian 1.3%
    • Korean 1.1%
    • Japanese 0.5%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 2.7%
    • Multiple visible minorities 1.9%
  • Not a visible minority 67.9%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 119,240

  • English 13.1%
  • Irish 12.8%
  • Scottish 11.7%
  • Italian 9.0%
  • Canadian 7.9%
  • Polish 7.8%
  • German 6.3%
  • Ukrainian 6.2%
  • Indian (India) 4.9%
  • French, n.o.s. 4.7%
  • Chinese 4.7%
  • Portuguese 4.0%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 3.8%
  • Filipino 3.0%
  • Russian 2.5%
  • Dutch 2.0%
  • Tibetan 1.9%
  • Spanish 1.8%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.6%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.4%
  • Greek 1.4%
  • Jamaican 1.4%
  • Serbian 1.4%
  • Welsh 1.1%
  • Korean 1.1%
  • Croatian 1.1%
  • French Canadian 1.0%
  • Hungarian 1.0%
  • African, n.o.s. 1.0%
  • Vietnamese 1.0%
  • Albanian 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 119,235

  • Buddhist 3.1%
    • Catholic 32.7%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 6.5%
    • Christian Orthodox 4.9%
    • Anglican 3.4%
    • United Church 2.8%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 1.5%
    • Presbyterian 1.0%
    • Other (8 <1%) 2.7%
  • Hindu 3.3%
  • Jewish 0.8%
  • Muslim 4.0%
  • Sikh 0.6%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.7%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 32.1%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 11.0%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 20.9%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 23.7%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 44.3%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.5

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 2.2%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 22.5%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 10.2%
    • 3 Health occupations 6.5%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 12.2%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 5.6%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 21.9%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 12.9%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0.6%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 2.7%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,645

  • English 95.4%
  • French 1.6%
  • English and French 0.8%
  • Neither English nor French 2.2%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,645

    • Official languages 60.1%
    • Non-official languages 34.5%
    • English and non-official language(s) 4.1%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.3%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,645

    • Official languages 78.1%
    • Non-official languages 17.0%
    • English and non-official language(s) 4.4%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,645

  • None 77.5%
  • English 6.7%
  • French 1.1%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 11.4%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 1.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.4%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 44,345

  • Under 5 years 8.3%
  • 5 to 14 years 17.5%
  • 15 to 24 years 19.1%
  • 25 to 44 years 46.6%
  • 45 years and over 8.6%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 44,345

    • Brazil 1.6%
    • Colombia 1.0%
    • El Salvador 0.3%
    • Guyana 1.2%
    • Haiti 0.1%
    • Jamaica 1.6%
    • Mexico 1.2%
    • Peru 0.4%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 1.4%
    • United States of America 2.2%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 4.0%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.9%
    • Croatia 0.9%
    • France 0.6%
    • Germany 1.5%
    • Greece 0.5%
    • Hungary 0.6%
    • Italy 3.6%
    • Netherlands 0.3%
    • Poland 8.5%
    • Portugal 3.4%
    • Romania 1.2%
    • Russian Federation 2.2%
    • Serbia 1.4%
    • Ukraine 5.9%
    • United Kingdom 5.0%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 7.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.9%
    • Other (9 <1%) 3.4%
    • Afghanistan 0.2%
    • Iran 2.5%
    • Iraq 0.3%
    • Lebanon 0.5%
    • Syria 0.2%
    • Turkey 0.6%
    • China 4.2%
    • Hong Kong 1.1%
    • Korea, South 1.9%
    • Taiwan 0.3%
    • Philippines 5.6%
    • Viet Nam 1.5%
    • Bangladesh 0.4%
    • India 9.8%
    • Pakistan 1.0%
    • Sri Lanka 0.4%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 5.1%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.5%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 6,480

    • Brazil 4.6%
    • Colombia 0.9%
    • Haiti 0
    • Jamaica 0.9%
    • Mexico 1.9%
    • United States of America 1.9%
    • Venezuela 1.2%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.5%
    • France 0.8%
    • Germany 0.7%
    • Ireland 1.2%
    • Italy 1.4%
    • Russian Federation 2.6%
    • Ukraine 7.4%
    • United Kingdom 1.2%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 8.0%
    • Nigeria 2.6%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.4%
    • Other (13 <1%) 2.8%
    • India 27.7%
    • China 5.7%
    • Philippines 5.4%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.9%
    • Viet Nam 2.0%
    • Iran 1.9%
    • Pakistan 1.5%
    • Nepal 1.2%
    • Other (14 <1%) 6.2%
    • Australia 0.6%
    • Other places of birth 0.2%

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 34,505

  • Asylum claim before admission 9.7%
  • Work permits only before admission 10.0%
  • Study permits only before admission 2.5%
  • Work and study permits before admission 7.1%
  • Other permits before admission 0.7%
  • No pre-admission experience 70.1%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 73,870

  • English 92.0%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.6%
  • English and French 2.5%
  • English and non-official language(s) 4.4%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 73,870

    • Official languages 97.5%
    • Non-official languages 1.5%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.9%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 73,870

  • None 93.6%
  • English 1.0%
  • French 1.9%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.6%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.5%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 19,155

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 10.4%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 89.6%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 13,035

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 7.0%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 3.8%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 89.2%

RIDING ID · 202335030