Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · CON

Dufferin-Caledon

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +12.6%.

CPC
Projected winner
CPC
Win prob 96.7%
Voters · 2025 71,169
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.91× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • CPC CPC
    96.7%
  • LPC LPC
    3.4%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • CPC CPC -8.2
    50.6% ±9.5
  • LPC LPC +4.1
    38.0% ±9.2
  • NDP NDP +3.7
    6.3% ±4.6
  • GPC GPC +0.9
    2.9% ±3.2
  • PPC PPC -0.7
    1.7% ±2.9
  • OTH OTH +0.1
    0.5% ±2.9

Past elections in Dufferin-Caledon

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +24.9% — Kyle Seeback
71,169 votes
  • CPC Kyle Seeback 58.8% Won
  • LPC Malalai Halimi 33.9%
  • NDP Viktor Karklins 2.5%
  • PPC Dympna Carolan 2.3%
  • GPC Ifra Baig 2.0%
  • IND Jeffrey Halsall 0.4%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Dufferin-Caledon demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.1%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.7%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.4%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.7%
    • 20 to 24 years 6.3%
    • 25 to 29 years 5.5%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.0%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.3%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.9%
    • 50 to 54 years 7.9%
    • 55 to 59 years 8.5%
    • 60 to 64 years 6.6%
    • 65 to 69 years 5.0%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.3%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.0%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.0%
    • 85 years and over 1.7%

Average age

40.8

Riding value

Median age

42

Riding value

Average size of census families

3.1

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $40,800

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 14.4%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

5.5%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.319

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,020

  • English only 93.2%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 5.8%
  • Neither English nor French 0.9%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,020

  • English 84.2%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 3.3%
  • English and French 0.8%
  • English and non-official language(s) 11.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.4%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 119,680

    • English 99.0%
    • French 5.8%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 23.9%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 1.6%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.5%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 27.0%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,860
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,968

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 119,680

  • Non-immigrants 80.2%
    • Before 1980 7.5%
    • 1980 to 1990 2.9%
    • 1991 to 2000 3.5%
    • 2001 to 2010 3.2%
    • 2011 to 2021 2.1%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.6%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 119,680

  • First generation 20.5%
  • Second generation 28.1%
  • Third generation or more 51.4%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 13,945

    • Principal applicants 16.0%
    • Secondary applicants 26.4%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 42.5%
  • Refugees 13.6%
  • Other immigrants 1.4%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 6.9%
    • Black 3.8%
    • Latin American 1.5%
    • Filipino 1.0%
    • Other (8 <1%) 3.5%
  • Not a visible minority 83.3%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 119,675

  • English 22.2%
  • Scottish 17.8%
  • Irish 17.6%
  • Italian 17.0%
  • Canadian 15.6%
  • German 8.0%
  • French, n.o.s. 5.2%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 4.5%
  • Portuguese 4.1%
  • Indian (India) 4.0%
  • Dutch 3.9%
  • Polish 3.7%
  • Ukrainian 2.8%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.7%
  • Welsh 1.7%
  • Jamaican 1.6%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.4%
  • Punjabi 1.4%
  • French Canadian 1.1%
  • Spanish 1.1%
  • Hungarian 1.1%
  • Greek 1.1%
  • American 1.0%
  • Sikh 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 119,675

  • Buddhist 0.3%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 7.0%
    • Anabaptist 0.4%
    • Anglican 4.8%
    • Baptist 1.0%
    • Catholic 32.2%
    • Christian Orthodox 1.4%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.6%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.2%
    • Lutheran 0.6%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.2%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.4%
    • Presbyterian 1.8%
    • Reformed 0.4%
    • United Church 5.7%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.1%
  • Hindu 1.6%
  • Jewish 0.4%
  • Muslim 1.2%
  • Sikh 4.0%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.4%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 32.1%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 15.1%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 31.5%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 31.7%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 21.6%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.8

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.6%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 18.1%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 5.8%
    • 3 Health occupations 5.3%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 11.6%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.6%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 22.8%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 21.9%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 3.1%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 5.4%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,020

  • English 98.0%
  • French 0.9%
  • English and French 0.2%
  • Neither English nor French 0.9%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,020

    • Official languages 80.8%
    • Non-official languages 16.2%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.4%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.6%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,020

    • Official languages 91.2%
    • Non-official languages 6.5%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.1%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.2%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 120,020

  • None 89.5%
  • English 2.7%
  • French 0.6%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 6.1%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.5%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 22,930

  • Under 5 years 12.8%
  • 5 to 14 years 21.7%
  • 15 to 24 years 25.9%
  • 25 to 44 years 33.4%
  • 45 years and over 6.3%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 22,930

    • Other places of birth in Americas 4.5%
    • Jamaica 4.4%
    • United States of America 3.0%
    • Guyana 1.7%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 1.5%
    • Other (6 <1%) 2.4%
    • United Kingdom 15.0%
    • Italy 11.1%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.9%
    • Portugal 4.8%
    • Poland 3.9%
    • Germany 2.6%
    • Netherlands 2.0%
    • Romania 1.2%
    • Other (8 <1%) 4.8%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.8%
    • Other (9 <1%) 1.6%
    • India 14.5%
    • Philippines 3.2%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.7%
    • Pakistan 1.5%
    • Sri Lanka 1.4%
    • Iraq 1.2%
    • Other (11 <1%) 4.7%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.5%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 1,325

    • Brazil 1.9%
    • Colombia 0
    • Haiti 0
    • Jamaica 3.0%
    • Mexico 1.1%
    • United States of America 4.5%
    • Venezuela 1.5%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 6.0%
    • France 0.8%
    • Germany 0
    • Ireland 0
    • Italy 3.8%
    • Russian Federation 1.5%
    • Ukraine 1.1%
    • United Kingdom 3.0%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 6.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.9%
    • Nigeria 1.5%
    • Other (13 <1%) 2.3%
    • India 26.4%
    • Philippines 14.3%
    • Syria 5.3%
    • Sri Lanka 2.3%
    • Pakistan 1.9%
    • China 1.5%
    • Iraq 1.5%
    • Korea, South 1.5%
    • Jordan 1.1%
    • Other (13 <1%) 2.3%
    • Australia 0.8%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 13,945

  • Asylum claim before admission 6.0%
  • Work permits only before admission 11.7%
  • Study permits only before admission 2.1%
  • Work and study permits before admission 3.8%
  • Other permits before admission 1.0%
  • No pre-admission experience 75.5%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 72,520

  • English 96.1%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.4%
  • English and French 1.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 72,520

    • Official languages 98.8%
    • Non-official languages 0.7%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 72,520

  • None 97.2%
  • English 0.4%
  • French 0.9%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.3%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 26,085

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 6.8%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.2%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 19,505

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.0%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 3.1%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 92.9%

RIDING ID · 202335025