Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · WWR FLIPPED

Cambridge

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +9.9%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 92.1%
Voters · 2025 65,364
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.95× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    92.1%
  • CPC CPC
    7.9%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +3.1
    49.4% ±9.7
  • CPC CPC -9.0
    39.6% ±9.5
  • NDP NDP +4.0
    7.3% ±5.1
  • GPC GPC +0.7
    2.3% ±2.9
  • PPC PPC +1.3
    1.3% ±2.9

Past elections in Cambridge

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +2.3% — Connie Cody
65,364 votes
  • CPC Connie Cody 48.6% Won
  • LPC Bryan May 46.3%
  • NDP José de Lima 3.3%
  • GPC Lux Burgess 1.6%
  • MLPC Manuel Couto 0.2%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Cambridge demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.3%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.7%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.1%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.0%
    • 20 to 24 years 6.1%
    • 25 to 29 years 7.0%
    • 30 to 34 years 7.0%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.7%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.3%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.5%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.7%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.3%
    • 60 to 64 years 6.4%
    • 65 to 69 years 5.3%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.4%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.0%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.1%
    • 85 years and over 2.2%

Average age

40.6

Riding value

Median age

40

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.9

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $37,600

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 18.8%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

8.7%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.304

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,785

  • English only 92.9%
  • French only 0.1%
  • English and French 5.2%
  • Neither English nor French 1.8%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,785

  • English 78.4%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 5.6%
  • English and French 0.9%
  • English and non-official language(s) 14.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.4%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.5%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 118,370

    • English 98.1%
    • French 5.2%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 27.0%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 1.8%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.5%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 29.8%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,560
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,604

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 118,370

  • Non-immigrants 75.8%
    • Before 1980 6.8%
    • 1980 to 1990 3.2%
    • 1991 to 2000 3.4%
    • 2001 to 2010 4.1%
    • 2011 to 2021 4.8%
  • Non-permanent residents 1.9%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 118,370

  • First generation 25.0%
  • Second generation 22.1%
  • Third generation or more 52.9%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 18,335

    • Principal applicants 18.5%
    • Secondary applicants 26.7%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 37.6%
  • Refugees 16.4%
  • Other immigrants 0.9%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 10.7%
    • Black 3.3%
    • Latin American 1.6%
    • Southeast Asian 1.3%
    • Filipino 1.2%
    • Arab 1.0%
    • Other (6 <1%) 2.9%
  • Not a visible minority 78.0%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 118,375

  • English 21.9%
  • Scottish 17.1%
  • Irish 16.7%
  • Canadian 15.9%
  • German 11.8%
  • Portuguese 8.7%
  • French, n.o.s. 6.5%
  • Indian (India) 5.5%
  • Dutch 4.4%
  • Italian 4.2%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 3.8%
  • Polish 3.2%
  • Pakistani 2.4%
  • Ukrainian 2.0%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.7%
  • Welsh 1.6%
  • Hungarian 1.5%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.3%
  • Filipino 1.2%
  • French Canadian 1.2%
  • Chinese 1.1%
  • Punjabi 1.0%
  • Jamaican 1.0%
  • Newfoundlander 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 118,375

  • Buddhist 0.7%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 7.1%
    • Anabaptist 0.3%
    • Anglican 4.4%
    • Baptist 1.9%
    • Catholic 29.1%
    • Christian Orthodox 1.1%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.3%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.3%
    • Lutheran 1.2%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.3%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.2%
    • Presbyterian 2.0%
    • Reformed 0.5%
    • United Church 3.5%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.4%
  • Hindu 2.5%
  • Jewish 0.2%
  • Muslim 6.5%
  • Sikh 2.6%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.5%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 31.5%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 19.2%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 31.3%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 30.4%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 19.0%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.8

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.0%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 15.4%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 7.6%
    • 3 Health occupations 5.9%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 9.1%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.2%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 23.9%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 19.9%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 1.8%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 10.7%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,785

  • English 96.8%
  • French 1.1%
  • English and French 0.3%
  • Neither English nor French 1.8%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,785

    • Official languages 76.4%
    • Non-official languages 20.2%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.7%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.7%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,785

    • Official languages 85.6%
    • Non-official languages 10.9%
    • English and non-official language(s) 3.2%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.3%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 118,785

  • None 87.0%
  • English 4.2%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 6.5%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.7%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.6%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 26,410

  • Under 5 years 11.1%
  • 5 to 14 years 19.1%
  • 15 to 24 years 21.7%
  • 25 to 44 years 41.0%
  • 45 years and over 7.1%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 26,410

    • Brazil 0.7%
    • Colombia 1.1%
    • El Salvador 1.4%
    • Guyana 2.0%
    • Haiti 0.1%
    • Jamaica 2.2%
    • Mexico 0.5%
    • Peru 0.1%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 0.9%
    • United States of America 2.6%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.8%
    • Portugal 15.1%
    • United Kingdom 11.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 2.5%
    • Poland 2.0%
    • Germany 1.6%
    • Italy 1.5%
    • Netherlands 1.3%
    • Romania 1.3%
    • Other (8 <1%) 3.5%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 2.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 3.0%
    • India 14.5%
    • Pakistan 7.7%
    • Philippines 3.9%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.2%
    • Viet Nam 2.6%
    • Iraq 1.5%
    • China 1.4%
    • Syria 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 4.3%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.3%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 3,340

    • Brazil 2.4%
    • Colombia 1.2%
    • Haiti 0
    • Jamaica 2.4%
    • Mexico 0.6%
    • United States of America 2.2%
    • Venezuela 0
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 3.7%
    • Ukraine 1.2%
    • Other (6 <1%) 2.1%
    • Nigeria 3.3%
    • South Africa, Republic of 1.9%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.2%
    • Other (12 <1%) 1.8%
    • India 35.0%
    • Pakistan 7.2%
    • Iraq 6.3%
    • Syria 6.0%
    • Philippines 5.8%
    • Turkey 1.9%
    • Korea, South 1.8%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.3%
    • Viet Nam 1.2%
    • Afghanistan 1.0%
    • Other (12 <1%) 5.7%
    • Australia 0.3%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 18,335

  • Asylum claim before admission 4.6%
  • Work permits only before admission 8.5%
  • Study permits only before admission 1.9%
  • Work and study permits before admission 4.5%
  • Other permits before admission 0.6%
  • No pre-admission experience 79.8%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 67,675

  • English 96.2%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.3%
  • English and French 1.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 67,675

    • Official languages 98.9%
    • Non-official languages 0.6%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 67,675

  • None 97.1%
  • English 0.4%
  • French 0.8%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.4%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.3%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 25,300

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 6.6%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.4%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 18,490

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.1%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.5%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.3%

RIDING ID · 202335019