Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · PEL

Brampton South

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +14.1%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 96.2%
Voters · 2025 44,602
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.15× (mod)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    96.2%
  • CPC CPC
    3.8%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +3.7
    53.1% ±10.9
  • CPC CPC -8.5
    39.0% ±10.7
  • NDP NDP +3.0
    4.7% ±4.7
  • PPC PPC +0.4
    1.2% ±3.3
  • GPC GPC +1.1
    1.1% ±3.3
  • OTH OTH +0.3
    0.9% ±3.3

Past elections in Brampton South

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +1.8% — Sonia Sidhu
44,602 votes
  • LPC Sonia Sidhu 49.3% Won
  • CPC Sukhdeep Kang 47.5%
  • NDP Rajni Sharma 1.7%
  • PPC Vijay Kumar 0.8%
  • IND Manmohan Khroud 0.6%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Brampton South demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.0%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.7%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.3%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.6%
    • 20 to 24 years 10.2%
    • 25 to 29 years 9.3%
    • 30 to 34 years 7.1%
    • 35 to 39 years 7.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.9%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.5%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.1%
    • 55 to 59 years 5.7%
    • 60 to 64 years 4.8%
    • 65 to 69 years 4.0%
    • 70 to 74 years 3.4%
    • 75 to 79 years 2.3%
    • 80 to 84 years 1.5%
    • 85 years and over 1.6%

Average age

37.3

Riding value

Median age

34.8

Riding value

Average size of census families

3.2

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.9

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $32,400

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 19.2%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

6.5%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.286

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,940

  • English only 89.8%
  • French only 0.0%
  • English and French 4.7%
  • Neither English nor French 5.5%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,940

  • English 34.4%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 19.6%
  • English and French 0.5%
  • English and non-official language(s) 42.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 1.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 2.1%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 112,220

    • English 94.4%
    • French 5.0%
    • Indigenous languages 0
    • Non-Indigenous languages 72.7%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 0.3%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.1%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 43.0%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $2,500
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $2,490

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 112,220

  • Non-immigrants 34.6%
    • Before 1980 5.7%
    • 1980 to 1990 5.7%
    • 1991 to 2000 12.6%
    • 2001 to 2010 17.4%
    • 2011 to 2021 14.4%
  • Non-permanent residents 9.7%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 112,220

  • First generation 66.0%
  • Second generation 27.7%
  • Third generation or more 6.2%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 56,135

    • Principal applicants 20.5%
    • Secondary applicants 28.3%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 40.9%
  • Refugees 9.1%
  • Other immigrants 1.2%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 63.9%
    • Chinese 1.7%
    • Black 8.5%
    • Filipino 2.9%
    • Arab 1.3%
    • Latin American 1.1%
    • Southeast Asian 1.7%
    • West Asian 1.0%
    • Korean 0.1%
    • Japanese 0.1%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 2.5%
    • Multiple visible minorities 1.9%
  • Not a visible minority 13.3%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 112,220

  • Indian (India) 33.8%
  • Punjabi 11.1%
  • Sikh 7.9%
  • Pakistani 5.9%
  • Hindu 4.8%
  • Canadian 4.4%
  • Jamaican 3.5%
  • Filipino 2.9%
  • English 2.5%
  • Portuguese 2.5%
  • Chinese 2.4%
  • South Asian, n.o.s. 2.4%
  • Irish 1.9%
  • Italian 1.9%
  • Scottish 1.7%
  • African, n.o.s. 1.6%
  • Asian, n.o.s. 1.6%
  • Guyanese 1.6%
  • Sri Lankan 1.4%
  • Muslim 1.4%
  • Polish 1.3%
  • Vietnamese 1.2%
  • Tamil 1.2%
  • Gujarati 1.1%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 112,220

  • Buddhist 1.3%
    • Catholic 14.2%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 6.1%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 2.0%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 1.1%
    • Other (11 <1%) 3.7%
  • Hindu 21.0%
  • Jewish 0.1%
  • Muslim 11.8%
  • Sikh 30.4%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.5%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 7.9%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 15.2%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 26.7%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 22.3%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 35.8%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 39.8

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 19.0%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 10.8%
    • 3 Health occupations 5.5%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 6.9%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1.4%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 23.2%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 20.9%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0.5%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 7.3%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,940

  • English 93.1%
  • French 0.6%
  • English and French 0.9%
  • Neither English nor French 5.4%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,940

    • Official languages 35.0%
    • Non-official languages 55.2%
    • English and non-official language(s) 8.5%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.3%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,940

    • Official languages 47.9%
    • Non-official languages 39.6%
    • English and non-official language(s) 11.9%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.6%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 111,940

  • None 63.3%
  • English 14.3%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 15.0%
  • English and French 0.2%
  • English and non-official language(s) 3.8%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.4%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 2.4%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 62,580

  • Under 5 years 7.5%
  • 5 to 14 years 14.6%
  • 15 to 24 years 21.6%
  • 25 to 44 years 44.2%
  • 45 years and over 12.1%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 62,580

    • Jamaica 4.2%
    • Guyana 2.7%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 1.6%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.3%
    • Other (7 <1%) 1.7%
    • Portugal 2.1%
    • United Kingdom 1.4%
    • Poland 1.2%
    • Other (13 <1%) 3.2%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 2.4%
    • Other (9 <1%) 1.9%
    • India 51.4%
    • Pakistan 7.8%
    • Philippines 4.0%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.7%
    • Sri Lanka 2.8%
    • Viet Nam 1.6%
    • China 1.2%
    • Other (10 <1%) 3.5%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.2%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 8,395

    • Jamaica 2.6%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.5%
    • United States of America 1.4%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.7%
    • Other (8 <1%) 1.4%
    • Nigeria 2.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.0%
    • Other (13 <1%) 1.2%
    • India 70.9%
    • Pakistan 5.7%
    • Nepal 3.2%
    • Philippines 2.4%
    • Other (18 <1%) 5.8%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0.2%

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 56,135

  • Asylum claim before admission 5.3%
  • Work permits only before admission 5.5%
  • Study permits only before admission 0.9%
  • Work and study permits before admission 4.6%
  • Other permits before admission 0.5%
  • No pre-admission experience 83.2%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 65,360

  • English 87.7%
  • French 0.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 1.7%
  • English and French 0.9%
  • English and non-official language(s) 9.4%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 65,360

    • Official languages 94.4%
    • Non-official languages 3.3%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.0%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.3%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 65,360

  • None 91.4%
  • English 1.4%
  • French 0.5%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 5.0%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 1.4%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 23,850

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 7.9%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 92.1%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 17,750

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 6.4%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 2.5%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 91.1%

RIDING ID · 202335013