Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · CON

Barrie South-Innisfil

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +7.1%.

CPC
Projected winner
CPC
Win prob 84.7%
Voters · 2025 66,521
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.94× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • CPC CPC
    84.7%
  • LPC LPC
    15.3%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • CPC CPC -9.8
    48.0% ±9.7
  • LPC LPC +3.0
    40.9% ±9.5
  • NDP NDP +3.9
    7.1% ±5.0
  • GPC GPC +1.8
    1.8% ±2.9
  • PPC PPC +0.4
    1.5% ±2.9
  • OTH OTH +0.7
    0.7% ±2.9

Past elections in Barrie South-Innisfil

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +20.0% — John Brassard
66,521 votes
  • CPC John Brassard 57.9% Won
  • LPC John Olthuis 37.9%
  • NDP Andrew Harrigan 3.2%
  • PPC Mark Sampson 1.1%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Barrie South-Innisfil demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.3%
    • 5 to 9 years 6.2%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.7%
    • 15 to 19 years 6.7%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.8%
    • 25 to 29 years 6.2%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.6%
    • 35 to 39 years 7.0%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.8%
    • 45 to 49 years 7.1%
    • 50 to 54 years 7.2%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.6%
    • 60 to 64 years 6.2%
    • 65 to 69 years 4.6%
    • 70 to 74 years 3.7%
    • 75 to 79 years 2.7%
    • 80 to 84 years 1.7%
    • 85 years and over 1.8%

Average age

39.7

Riding value

Median age

39.6

Riding value

Average size of census families

3

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $38,800

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 17.5%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

6.6%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.293

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,840

  • English only 92.7%
  • French only 0.1%
  • English and French 6.2%
  • Neither English nor French 1.0%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,840

  • English 82.8%
  • French 0.3%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 3.8%
  • English and French 1.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 11.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.4%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.3%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 119,275

    • English 99.0%
    • French 6.3%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 21.9%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 2.9%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.9%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 29.4%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,800
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,824

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 119,275

  • Non-immigrants 79.7%
    • Before 1980 5.2%
    • 1980 to 1990 2.4%
    • 1991 to 2000 3.4%
    • 2001 to 2010 4.1%
    • 2011 to 2021 4.2%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.9%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 119,275

  • First generation 21.0%
  • Second generation 23.4%
  • Third generation or more 55.6%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 16,830

    • Principal applicants 17.9%
    • Secondary applicants 29.1%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 34.2%
  • Refugees 17.1%
  • Other immigrants 1.7%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Black 3.9%
    • South Asian 3.4%
    • Latin American 2.5%
    • Chinese 1.5%
    • Filipino 1.3%
    • Other (7 <1%) 4.3%
  • Not a visible minority 83.1%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 119,275

  • English 24.0%
  • Irish 19.4%
  • Scottish 18.9%
  • Canadian 17.2%
  • Italian 9.1%
  • German 8.8%
  • French, n.o.s. 7.3%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 4.6%
  • Polish 4.1%
  • Dutch 3.8%
  • Portuguese 3.5%
  • Ukrainian 2.9%
  • Russian 2.2%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.1%
  • Welsh 1.9%
  • Indian (India) 1.8%
  • Chinese 1.6%
  • Jamaican 1.6%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.5%
  • Spanish 1.5%
  • Filipino 1.3%
  • French Canadian 1.3%
  • Hungarian 1.3%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 1.2%
  • Métis 1.1%
  • Greek 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 119,275

  • Buddhist 0.5%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 8.4%
    • Anabaptist 0.1%
    • Anglican 4.6%
    • Baptist 1.5%
    • Catholic 26.6%
    • Christian Orthodox 1.9%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.7%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 0.7%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.3%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.6%
    • Presbyterian 1.8%
    • Reformed 0.2%
    • United Church 4.6%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.5%
  • Hindu 1.2%
  • Jewish 1.1%
  • Muslim 2.5%
  • Sikh 0.4%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.1%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.6%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 38.3%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 16.3%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 31.4%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 33.0%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 19.3%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.4

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.9%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 15.5%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 6.6%
    • 3 Health occupations 7.2%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 11.3%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.3%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 25.3%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 21.2%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 1.5%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 5.8%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,840

  • English 97.3%
  • French 1.5%
  • English and French 0.3%
  • Neither English nor French 0.9%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,840

    • Official languages 81.0%
    • Non-official languages 16.1%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.1%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.8%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,840

    • Official languages 89.8%
    • Non-official languages 7.7%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.2%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.4%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 119,840

  • None 89.0%
  • English 3.2%
  • French 0.9%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 5.7%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.5%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.5%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 23,050

  • Under 5 years 11.6%
  • 5 to 14 years 21.5%
  • 15 to 24 years 20.8%
  • 25 to 44 years 40.4%
  • 45 years and over 5.8%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 23,050

    • Brazil 1.0%
    • Colombia 1.4%
    • El Salvador 1.4%
    • Guyana 1.6%
    • Haiti 0.1%
    • Jamaica 3.3%
    • Mexico 0.9%
    • Peru 0.5%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 1.3%
    • United States of America 2.8%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 5.4%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.3%
    • Croatia 0.3%
    • France 0.5%
    • Germany 2.5%
    • Greece 0.5%
    • Hungary 1.0%
    • Italy 4.7%
    • Netherlands 1.7%
    • Poland 3.4%
    • Portugal 4.5%
    • Romania 0.9%
    • Russian Federation 3.9%
    • Serbia 0.3%
    • Ukraine 2.7%
    • United Kingdom 11.3%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 5.3%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 2.0%
    • Nigeria 1.9%
    • Other (8 <1%) 1.8%
    • Afghanistan 0.8%
    • Iran 2.3%
    • Iraq 0.8%
    • Lebanon 0.5%
    • Syria 0.4%
    • Turkey 0.9%
    • China 3.7%
    • Hong Kong 0.4%
    • Korea, South 1.6%
    • Taiwan 0.2%
    • Philippines 4.6%
    • Viet Nam 1.6%
    • Bangladesh 0.2%
    • India 4.1%
    • Pakistan 2.5%
    • Sri Lanka 1.4%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 4.8%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.4%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 2,520

    • Brazil 2.0%
    • Colombia 1.4%
    • Haiti 0
    • Jamaica 2.0%
    • Mexico 1.4%
    • United States of America 5.2%
    • Venezuela 0.8%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 5.6%
    • Ukraine 5.4%
    • Russian Federation 4.6%
    • United Kingdom 3.0%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.2%
    • Nigeria 7.1%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.4%
    • Egypt 1.0%
    • Other (12 <1%) 1.8%
    • Afghanistan 0
    • Bangladesh 0
    • China 2.8%
    • Hong Kong 0
    • India 16.3%
    • Iran 2.8%
    • Iraq 0
    • Israel 2.0%
    • Japan 0
    • Jordan 1.0%
    • Korea, South 2.0%
    • Lebanon 1.0%
    • Nepal 0
    • Pakistan 5.0%
    • Philippines 7.1%
    • Saudi Arabia 0
    • Sri Lanka 1.2%
    • Syria 1.8%
    • Turkey 3.6%
    • United Arab Emirates 1.0%
    • Viet Nam 0.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 3.4%
    • Australia 0.8%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 16,830

  • Asylum claim before admission 9.7%
  • Work permits only before admission 11.4%
  • Study permits only before admission 2.0%
  • Work and study permits before admission 4.8%
  • Other permits before admission 0.4%
  • No pre-admission experience 71.8%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 70,085

  • English 96.4%
  • French 0.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.3%
  • English and French 1.2%
  • English and non-official language(s) 1.8%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 70,085

    • Official languages 98.9%
    • Non-official languages 0.6%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 70,085

  • None 97.3%
  • English 0.5%
  • French 0.8%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.2%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 27,355

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 8.5%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 91.6%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 20,455

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.9%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.1%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 91.1%

RIDING ID · 202335004