Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

ON · ON · EON

Algonquin-Renfrew-Pembroke

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +5.1%.

CPC
Projected winner
CPC
Win prob 76.5%
Voters · 2025 65,564
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.95× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • CPC CPC
    76.5%
  • LPC LPC
    23.5%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • CPC CPC -9.9
    45.7% ±9.7
  • LPC LPC +2.7
    40.6% ±9.5
  • NDP NDP +4.2
    7.9% ±5.3
  • OTH OTH +1.0
    2.9% ±3.2
  • PPC PPC +1.5
    1.5% ±2.9
  • GPC GPC +0.5
    1.4% ±2.9

Past elections in Algonquin-Renfrew-Pembroke

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +17.7% — Cheryl Gallant
65,564 votes
  • CPC Cheryl Gallant 55.6% Won
  • LPC Cyndi Mills 37.9%
  • NDP Eileen Jones-Whyte 3.7%
  • UPC Randy Briand 1.4%
  • GPC Danilo Velasquez 0.9%
  • IND Seth Malina 0.3%
  • IND Stefan Klietsch 0.2%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Algonquin-Renfrew-Pembroke demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.1%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.5%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.2%
    • 15 to 19 years 4.9%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.0%
    • 25 to 29 years 6.0%
    • 30 to 34 years 6.4%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.1%
    • 40 to 44 years 5.3%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.3%
    • 50 to 54 years 5.7%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.9%
    • 60 to 64 years 8.3%
    • 65 to 69 years 7.4%
    • 70 to 74 years 6.3%
    • 75 to 79 years 4.2%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.7%
    • 85 years and over 2.8%

Average age

44.2

Riding value

Median age

45.6

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.8

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $38,000

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 20.3%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

10.6%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.297

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 106,435

  • English only 87.0%
  • French only 0.2%
  • English and French 12.6%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 106,435

  • English 92.6%
  • French 1.4%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.6%
  • English and French 2.6%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.4%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 104,625

    • English 99.6%
    • French 12.9%
    • Indigenous languages 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 6.1%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 8.8%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 2.7%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 22.2%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $960
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,126

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 104,620

  • Non-immigrants 94.3%
    • Before 1980 2.3%
    • Other (4 <1%) 3.2%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.2%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 104,625

  • First generation 6.5%
  • Second generation 9.7%
  • Third generation or more 83.8%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 3,285

    • Principal applicants 21.5%
    • Secondary applicants 28.6%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 37.7%
  • Refugees 11.3%
  • Other immigrants 0.8%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Other (12 <1%) 3.3%
  • Not a visible minority 96.7%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 104,625

  • Irish 30.6%
  • Scottish 23.2%
  • German 20.4%
  • English 20.2%
  • French, n.o.s. 19.5%
  • Canadian 16.8%
  • Polish 9.0%
  • Dutch 3.9%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 3.5%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 3.4%
  • Métis 3.0%
  • French Canadian 2.5%
  • Italian 2.4%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.4%
  • Algonquin 2.4%
  • Welsh 1.9%
  • Ukrainian 1.8%
  • North American Indigenous, n.o.s. 1.4%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.3%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 104,625

  • Buddhist 0.2%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 5.0%
    • Anabaptist 0.3%
    • Anglican 5.4%
    • Baptist 1.7%
    • Catholic 34.5%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.3%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.4%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 5.1%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.7%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.6%
    • Presbyterian 1.8%
    • Reformed 0.2%
    • United Church 7.0%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.6%
  • Hindu 0.3%
  • Jewish 0.1%
  • Muslim 0.3%
  • Sikh 0.1%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.1%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.7%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 31.6%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 16.5%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 33.1%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 35.7%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 14.6%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 42.2

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.8%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 12.3%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 6.8%
    • 3 Health occupations 8.5%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 18.1%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 1.7%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 23.2%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 18.9%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 3.7%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 4.1%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 106,435

  • English 94.9%
  • French 4.7%
  • English and French 0.3%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 106,435

    • Official languages 94.2%
    • Non-official languages 4.1%
    • English and French 1.1%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.6%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 106,435

    • Official languages 97.7%
    • Non-official languages 1.3%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.0%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 106,435

  • None 95.5%
  • English 1.0%
  • French 1.7%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 1.4%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 5,740

  • Under 5 years 13.8%
  • 5 to 14 years 20.9%
  • 15 to 24 years 20.5%
  • 25 to 44 years 39.8%
  • 45 years and over 5.1%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 5,740

    • Brazil 1.1%
    • Colombia 1.0%
    • El Salvador 0.3%
    • Guyana 0.6%
    • Haiti 0.2%
    • Jamaica 1.2%
    • Mexico 0.7%
    • Peru 0
    • Trinidad and Tobago 1.0%
    • United States of America 9.4%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.5%
    • United Kingdom 23.9%
    • Germany 9.0%
    • Netherlands 6.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 5.8%
    • Poland 5.0%
    • Italy 1.0%
    • Ukraine 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 5.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 1.7%
    • Other (9 <1%) 1.6%
    • India 4.9%
    • China 3.3%
    • Philippines 3.0%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.9%
    • Korea, South 1.3%
    • Pakistan 1.1%
    • Sri Lanka 1.0%
    • Other (10 <1%) 4.2%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.7%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 430

    • United States of America 14.0%
    • Brazil 7.0%
    • Jamaica 3.5%
    • Other (5 <1%) 3.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 9.3%
    • United Kingdom 5.8%
    • Russian Federation 2.3%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.0%
    • Other (15 <1%) 5.8%
    • India 17.4%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 9.3%
    • Philippines 4.7%
    • China 3.5%
    • Viet Nam 2.3%
    • Other (17 <1%) 12.8%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 3,285

  • Asylum claim before admission 3.2%
  • Work permits only before admission 12.0%
  • Study permits only before admission 4.3%
  • Work and study permits before admission 7.3%
  • Other permits before admission 1.1%
  • No pre-admission experience 72.5%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 54,605

  • English 94.2%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
  • English and French 4.5%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.5%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 54,605

    • Official languages 99.2%
    • Non-official languages 0.2%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.6%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 54,605

  • None 95.5%
  • English 0.5%
  • French 3.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.2%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 20,405

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 17.7%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 82.3%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 14,565

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 10.2%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 7.2%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 82.6%

RIDING ID · 202335002