Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

QC · QC · MTL

Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Soeurs

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +47.1%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 46,181
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.13× (mod)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    100.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +0.2
    63.5% ±10.4
  • CPC CPC -2.5
    16.4% ±8.0
  • BQ BQ -0.9
    8.2% ±6.0
  • NDP NDP +1.9
    8.0% ±5.9
  • GPC GPC +0.7
    2.8% ±3.5
  • PPC PPC +0.6
    0.6% ±3.3

Past elections in Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Soeurs

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +44.4% — Marc Miller
46,181 votes
  • LPC Marc Miller 63.3% Won
  • CPC Steve Shanahan 18.9%
  • BQ Kevin Majaducon 9.2%
  • NDP Suzanne Dufresne 6.0%
  • GPC Nathe Perrone 2.1%
  • RHINO Giovanni Di Placido 0.4%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Île-des-Soeurs demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 3.9%
    • 5 to 9 years 3.4%
    • 10 to 14 years 3.1%
    • 15 to 19 years 4.2%
    • 20 to 24 years 11.5%
    • 25 to 29 years 13.6%
    • 30 to 34 years 11.7%
    • 35 to 39 years 8.7%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.3%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.0%
    • 50 to 54 years 4.9%
    • 55 to 59 years 5.0%
    • 60 to 64 years 4.8%
    • 65 to 69 years 4.3%
    • 70 to 74 years 3.7%
    • 75 to 79 years 2.7%
    • 80 to 84 years 1.7%
    • 85 years and over 1.6%

Average age

38.8

Riding value

Median age

34.4

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.6

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.6

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $34,800

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 12.4%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

25.8%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.513

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,545

  • English only 24.3%
  • French only 10.9%
  • English and French 63.2%
  • Neither English nor French 1.7%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,545

  • English 21.3%
  • French 28.9%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 11.0%
  • English and French 11.7%
  • English and non-official language(s) 13.4%
  • French and non-official language(s) 4.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 9.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.6%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 112,105

    • English 87.6%
    • French 74.1%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 55.2%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 0.8%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.2%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 45.2%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,700
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,936

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 112,100

  • Non-immigrants 50.8%
    • Before 1980 3.2%
    • 1980 to 1990 2.7%
    • 1991 to 2000 5.5%
    • 2001 to 2010 8.3%
    • 2011 to 2021 13.0%
  • Non-permanent residents 16.6%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 112,105

  • First generation 51.0%
  • Second generation 17.4%
  • Third generation or more 31.6%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 32,965

    • Principal applicants 33.1%
    • Secondary applicants 34.7%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 18.9%
  • Refugees 12.2%
  • Other immigrants 1.2%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 6.6%
    • Chinese 10.0%
    • Black 6.3%
    • Filipino 0.5%
    • Arab 8.8%
    • Latin American 4.0%
    • Southeast Asian 1.5%
    • West Asian 3.3%
    • Korean 1.0%
    • Japanese 0.4%
    • Visible minority, n.i.e. 0.4%
    • Multiple visible minorities 1.3%
  • Not a visible minority 56.0%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 112,100

  • French, n.o.s. 16.9%
  • Canadian 9.8%
  • Chinese 9.5%
  • Irish 6.0%
  • Italian 4.9%
  • Québécois 3.9%
  • Scottish 3.8%
  • Indian (India) 3.8%
  • Arab, n.o.s. 3.5%
  • English 3.4%
  • French Canadian 3.2%
  • German 2.9%
  • Lebanese 2.9%
  • Iranian 2.9%
  • Russian 2.3%
  • Jewish 2.1%
  • Spanish 1.9%
  • Polish 1.7%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 1.7%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.7%
  • Moroccan 1.6%
  • African, n.o.s. 1.5%
  • Ukrainian 1.3%
  • Egyptian 1.2%
  • Colombian 1.2%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 1.1%
  • Portuguese 1.1%
  • Vietnamese 1.1%
  • Romanian 1.1%
  • Syrian 1.1%
  • Greek 1.0%
  • Korean 1.0%
  • Haitian 1.0%
  • Persian 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 112,100

  • Buddhist 1.1%
    • Catholic 26.1%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 5.7%
    • Christian Orthodox 2.7%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 1.5%
    • Other (11 <1%) 2.6%
  • Hindu 3.2%
  • Jewish 2.9%
  • Muslim 13.4%
  • Sikh 0.7%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.6%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 39.4%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 7.4%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 16.3%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 20.7%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 55.7%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 39.1

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 3.1%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 21.8%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 16.6%
    • 3 Health occupations 6.8%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 12.9%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 6.7%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 20.6%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 5.8%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 0.3%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 1.7%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,545

  • English 43.8%
  • French 44.4%
  • English and French 10.1%
  • Neither English nor French 1.6%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,545

    • Official languages 55.8%
    • Non-official languages 36.1%
    • English and French 2.6%
    • English and non-official language(s) 2.7%
    • French and non-official language(s) 1.6%
    • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.9%
    • Multiple non-official languages 0.3%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,545

    • Official languages 69.4%
    • Non-official languages 20.9%
    • English and French 3.7%
    • English and non-official language(s) 3.4%
    • French and non-official language(s) 1.4%
    • English, French and non-official language(s) 1.2%
    • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 113,545

  • None 68.4%
  • English 10.3%
  • French 6.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 7.6%
  • English and French 2.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 2.2%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.9%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 36,570

  • Under 5 years 7.5%
  • 5 to 14 years 16.2%
  • 15 to 24 years 17.6%
  • 25 to 44 years 49.6%
  • 45 years and over 9.1%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 36,570

    • Brazil 1.2%
    • Colombia 2.5%
    • El Salvador 0.3%
    • Guyana 0.2%
    • Haiti 1.3%
    • Jamaica 0.3%
    • Mexico 1.5%
    • Peru 0.9%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 0.4%
    • United States of America 2.6%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 4.2%
    • France 7.0%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 3.7%
    • Romania 2.0%
    • Russian Federation 1.9%
    • Ukraine 1.3%
    • United Kingdom 1.2%
    • Poland 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 3.5%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 6.1%
    • Morocco 3.9%
    • Egypt 2.7%
    • Algeria 2.4%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 1.2%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.7%
    • Afghanistan 0.2%
    • Iran 6.5%
    • Iraq 1.0%
    • Lebanon 4.8%
    • Syria 2.6%
    • Turkey 1.0%
    • China 11.9%
    • Hong Kong 0.8%
    • Korea, South 1.7%
    • Taiwan 0.7%
    • Philippines 0.9%
    • Viet Nam 1.2%
    • Bangladesh 2.1%
    • India 3.5%
    • Pakistan 0.8%
    • Sri Lanka 0.4%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 5.6%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.4%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 8,820

    • Brazil 1.5%
    • Colombia 2.1%
    • Haiti 0.3%
    • Jamaica 0
    • Mexico 1.9%
    • United States of America 2.9%
    • Venezuela 1.5%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.4%
    • France 9.0%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 3.3%
    • Ukraine 1.1%
    • Russian Federation 1.0%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.9%
    • Morocco 4.4%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 3.2%
    • Tunisia 1.9%
    • Egypt 1.5%
    • Algeria 1.4%
    • Nigeria 1.1%
    • Other (9 <1%) 2.3%
    • Afghanistan 0
    • Bangladesh 1.1%
    • China 18.3%
    • Hong Kong 0.2%
    • India 10.0%
    • Iran 7.0%
    • Iraq 0.4%
    • Israel 0.2%
    • Japan 0.2%
    • Jordan 1.1%
    • Korea, South 1.9%
    • Lebanon 3.2%
    • Nepal 0
    • Pakistan 1.2%
    • Philippines 0.9%
    • Saudi Arabia 1.1%
    • Sri Lanka 0
    • Syria 4.5%
    • Turkey 1.2%
    • United Arab Emirates 0.7%
    • Viet Nam 0.5%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.0%
    • Australia 0.5%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 32,965

  • Asylum claim before admission 7.7%
  • Work permits only before admission 9.3%
  • Study permits only before admission 5.3%
  • Work and study permits before admission 10.8%
  • Other permits before admission 0.8%
  • No pre-admission experience 66.2%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 71,515

  • English 30.1%
  • French 19.6%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.8%
  • English and French 43.9%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 2.9%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 71,515

    • Official languages 85.6%
    • Non-official languages 1.6%
    • English and French 11.6%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.2%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 71,515

  • None 62.3%
  • English 18.0%
  • French 15.8%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.1%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.5%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.9%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 14,005

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 32.4%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 67.6%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 9,295

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 28.8%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 6.5%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 64.7%

RIDING ID · 202324077