Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

QC · QC · ECQ FLIPPED

Montmorency-Charlevoix

Bloc Québécois projected to win by +1.0%.

BQ
Projected winner
BQ
Win prob 43.1%
Voters · 2025 59,144
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.00× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • BQ BQ
    43.1%
  • CPC CPC
    34.6%
  • LPC LPC
    22.2%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • BQ BQ -0.4
    32.9% ±9.4
  • CPC CPC -2.7
    31.9% ±9.3
  • LPC LPC +1.3
    30.2% ±9.2
  • NDP NDP +1.0
    2.5% ±3.1
  • GPC GPC +0.5
    1.5% ±3.0
  • PPC PPC +0.0
    0.6% ±3.0

Past elections in Montmorency-Charlevoix

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +1.3% — Gabriel Hardy
59,144 votes
  • CPC Gabriel Hardy 34.6% Won
  • BQ Caroline Desbiens 33.3%
  • LPC Alex Ouellet-Bélanger 28.9%
  • NDP Gérard Briand 1.5%
  • GPC Élie Prud'Homme-Tessier 1.0%
  • PPC Bart Cortenbach 0.6%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Montmorency-Charlevoix demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.1%
    • 5 to 9 years 6.1%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.2%
    • 15 to 19 years 4.8%
    • 20 to 24 years 3.8%
    • 25 to 29 years 4.5%
    • 30 to 34 years 5.5%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.4%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.9%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.1%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.4%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.8%
    • 60 to 64 years 8.5%
    • 65 to 69 years 7.3%
    • 70 to 74 years 6.1%
    • 75 to 79 years 4.0%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.4%
    • 85 years and over 2.2%

Average age

43.8

Riding value

Median age

45.6

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.8

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.8

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $39,600

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 18.8%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

7.5%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.287

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,745

  • English only 0.1%
  • French only 68.5%
  • English and French 31.3%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,745

  • English 0.4%
  • French 95.8%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.3%
  • English and French 2.3%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.9%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.4%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 98,945

    • English 31.5%
    • French 99.8%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 4.4%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 1.8%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.4%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 15.0%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,030
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,116

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 98,940

  • Non-immigrants 96.3%
    • 2011 to 2021 1.2%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.8%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.6%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 98,940

  • First generation 4.1%
  • Second generation 2.7%
  • Third generation or more 93.2%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 2,605

    • Principal applicants 32.1%
    • Secondary applicants 35.1%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 23.6%
  • Refugees 8.8%
  • Other immigrants 0.6%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Other (12 <1%) 2.0%
  • Not a visible minority 98.0%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 98,940

  • Canadian 41.1%
  • French, n.o.s. 24.6%
  • Québécois 14.9%
  • French Canadian 10.9%
  • Irish 3.5%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.0%
  • Christian, n.i.e. 1.6%
  • Scottish 1.3%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 1.3%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.1%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 98,940

  • Buddhist 0.1%
    • Catholic 67.6%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 6.4%
    • Other (13 <1%) 1.0%
  • Hindu 0.0%
  • Jewish 0.0%
  • Muslim 0.6%
  • Sikh 0.0%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.1%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 24.1%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 15.7%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 21.6%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 43.4%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 19.3%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 42.1

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 2.4%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 16.8%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 7.1%
    • 3 Health occupations 9.1%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 12.8%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.7%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 23.4%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 18.8%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 2.4%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 3.2%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,745

  • English 1.0%
  • French 98.6%
  • English and French 0.3%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,745

    • Official languages 97.8%
    • Non-official languages 1.3%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.8%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,745

    • Official languages 98.8%
    • Non-official languages 0.5%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.7%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 99,745

  • None 97.1%
  • English 1.8%
  • French 0.4%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.5%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 3,005

  • Under 5 years 11.3%
  • 5 to 14 years 16.5%
  • 15 to 24 years 13.3%
  • 25 to 44 years 53.9%
  • 45 years and over 5.0%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 3,005

    • Brazil 1.5%
    • Colombia 1.3%
    • El Salvador 0
    • Guyana 0
    • Haiti 2.7%
    • Jamaica 0
    • Mexico 1.3%
    • Peru 0.5%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 0
    • United States of America 4.7%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 3.0%
    • France 36.9%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 7.7%
    • Portugal 1.5%
    • United Kingdom 1.3%
    • Germany 1.2%
    • Other (11 <1%) 4.3%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 13.1%
    • Algeria 4.3%
    • Morocco 3.5%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 2.3%
    • Other (6 <1%) 0.4%
    • China 2.5%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.7%
    • Other (15 <1%) 3.6%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.5%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 555

    • United States of America 4.5%
    • Mexico 2.7%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.7%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.9%
    • France 38.7%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 4.5%
    • Other (6 <1%) 5.4%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 11.7%
    • Algeria 5.4%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 4.5%
    • Cameroon 3.6%
    • Burundi 2.7%
    • Morocco 1.8%
    • Tunisia 1.8%
    • Other (8 <1%) 0.9%
    • China 2.7%
    • Philippines 1.8%
    • Other (20 <1%) 4.5%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 2,605

  • Asylum claim before admission 3.3%
  • Work permits only before admission 15.0%
  • Study permits only before admission 3.8%
  • Work and study permits before admission 6.3%
  • Other permits before admission 0.6%
  • No pre-admission experience 71.0%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 57,500

  • English 0.9%
  • French 87.9%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
  • English and French 10.7%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 57,500

    • Official languages 98.8%
    • Non-official languages 0.2%
    • English and French 1.0%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.0%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 57,500

  • None 89.9%
  • English 8.7%
  • French 1.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 20,915

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 6.0%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 94.0%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 15,305

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.4%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 1.9%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 93.7%

RIDING ID · 202324051