Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

QC · QC · SQMR

Compton-Stanstead

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +21.4%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 99.9%
Voters · 2025 65,631
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 0.95× (low)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    99.9%
  • BQ BQ
    0.1%
  • CPC CPC
    0.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +1.3
    46.9% ±9.7
  • BQ BQ -0.8
    25.6% ±8.5
  • CPC CPC -2.3
    19.5% ±7.7
  • NDP NDP +1.4
    4.6% ±4.1
  • GPC GPC +0.6
    2.4% ±3.0
  • PPC PPC -0.5
    0.7% ±2.9

Past elections in Compton-Stanstead

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +19.3% — Marianne Dandurand
65,631 votes
  • LPC Marianne Dandurand 45.6% Won
  • BQ Nathalie Bresse 26.4%
  • CPC Jacques Painchaud 21.8%
  • NDP Valérie Laliberté 3.3%
  • GPC Sébastien Tremblay 1.8%
  • PPC Paul Lehmann 1.2%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Compton-Stanstead demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 5.4%
    • 5 to 9 years 6.3%
    • 10 to 14 years 6.6%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.6%
    • 20 to 24 years 4.8%
    • 25 to 29 years 5.1%
    • 30 to 34 years 5.8%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.2%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.8%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.9%
    • 50 to 54 years 6.2%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.4%
    • 60 to 64 years 7.5%
    • 65 to 69 years 6.6%
    • 70 to 74 years 5.6%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.7%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.1%
    • 85 years and over 2.1%

Average age

42.1

Riding value

Median age

42.8

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.8

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.9

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $36,400

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 20.4%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

9.8%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.297

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,530

  • English only 3.7%
  • French only 52.9%
  • English and French 43.2%
  • Neither English nor French 0.2%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,530

  • English 8.6%
  • French 82.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.7%
  • English and French 5.9%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 1.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 111,195

    • English 47.2%
    • French 96.0%
    • Indigenous languages 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 6.2%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 2.0%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 0.3%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 16.8%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $980
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,044

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 111,195

  • Non-immigrants 94.9%
    • Before 1980 1.0%
    • 1980 to 1990 0.3%
    • 1991 to 2000 0.6%
    • 2001 to 2010 1.2%
    • 2011 to 2021 1.2%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.6%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 111,195

  • First generation 5.9%
  • Second generation 5.3%
  • Third generation or more 88.8%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 3,785

    • Principal applicants 25.8%
    • Secondary applicants 28.0%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 27.5%
  • Refugees 17.3%
  • Other immigrants 1.3%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Latin American 1.0%
    • Other (11 <1%) 2.4%
  • Not a visible minority 96.6%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 111,195

  • Canadian 38.0%
  • French, n.o.s. 25.1%
  • Québécois 13.2%
  • French Canadian 8.6%
  • Irish 6.1%
  • English 3.9%
  • Scottish 3.4%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 2.5%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.0%
  • German 1.7%
  • Italian 1.6%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.2%
  • Christian, n.i.e. 1.2%
  • American 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 111,195

  • Buddhist 0.1%
    • Catholic 58.3%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 4.7%
    • Anglican 1.5%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 1.5%
    • United Church 1.0%
    • Other (10 <1%) 1.3%
  • Hindu 0.0%
  • Jewish 0.1%
  • Muslim 0.8%
  • Sikh 0.0%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.3%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 30.3%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 19.3%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 21.6%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 40.2%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 19.0%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 42.4

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.9%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 14.7%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 6.0%
    • 3 Health occupations 9.2%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 12.8%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.4%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 22.1%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 18.5%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 4.2%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 6.8%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,530

  • English 10.9%
  • French 87.9%
  • English and French 1.0%
  • Neither English nor French 0.2%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,530

    • Official languages 95.4%
    • Non-official languages 2.7%
    • English and French 1.5%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.4%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,530

    • Official languages 96.8%
    • Non-official languages 1.3%
    • English and French 1.4%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.5%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 112,530

  • None 93.7%
  • English 3.1%
  • French 2.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.7%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 4,920

  • Under 5 years 13.3%
  • 5 to 14 years 15.4%
  • 15 to 24 years 17.7%
  • 25 to 44 years 47.5%
  • 45 years and over 6.3%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 4,920

    • Brazil 2.9%
    • Colombia 7.0%
    • El Salvador 0.5%
    • Guyana 0
    • Haiti 1.1%
    • Jamaica 0.2%
    • Mexico 1.1%
    • Peru 1.3%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 0.2%
    • United States of America 14.3%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 5.5%
    • France 22.6%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 7.3%
    • United Kingdom 2.8%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.0%
    • Germany 1.3%
    • Italy 1.3%
    • Poland 1.0%
    • Other (9 <1%) 3.6%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 6.1%
    • Morocco 3.4%
    • Algeria 1.9%
    • Other (7 <1%) 0.9%
    • China 2.3%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.1%
    • India 1.2%
    • Afghanistan 1.1%
    • Lebanon 1.1%
    • Other (12 <1%) 3.8%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.2%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 670

    • Brazil 5.2%
    • Colombia 9.7%
    • Haiti 0
    • Jamaica 0
    • Mexico 0
    • United States of America 5.2%
    • Venezuela 2.2%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 5.2%
    • France 39.6%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 5.2%
    • United Kingdom 1.5%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 4.5%
    • Algeria 3.0%
    • Morocco 1.5%
    • Other (12 <1%) 1.4%
    • Syria 3.0%
    • Afghanistan 2.2%
    • China 2.2%
    • Other (19 <1%) 7.5%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 3,785

  • Asylum claim before admission 3.3%
  • Work permits only before admission 14.1%
  • Study permits only before admission 4.0%
  • Work and study permits before admission 6.7%
  • Other permits before admission 1.3%
  • No pre-admission experience 70.3%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 63,625

  • English 5.1%
  • French 73.4%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
  • English and French 20.8%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 63,625

    • Official languages 96.9%
    • Non-official languages 0.2%
    • English and French 2.9%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.0%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 63,625

  • None 81.5%
  • English 14.1%
  • French 3.9%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.2%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 25,200

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 18.5%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 81.5%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 18,575

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 14.2%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.3%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 81.4%

RIDING ID · 202324019