Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

QC · QC · ONQ FLIPPED

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +1.1%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 40.6%
Voters · 2025 50,831
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.07× (mod)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    40.6%
  • CPC CPC
    32.0%
  • BQ BQ
    27.4%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC +1.3
    32.5% ±9.8
  • CPC CPC -2.7
    31.4% ±9.8
  • BQ BQ -0.5
    30.8% ±9.7
  • NDP NDP +1.1
    3.0% ±3.6
  • GPC GPC +0.5
    1.4% ±3.1
  • PPC PPC -0.0
    0.7% ±3.1

Past elections in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +2.9% — Richard Martel
50,831 votes
  • CPC Richard Martel 34.1% Won
  • BQ Marc St-Hilaire 31.2%
  • LPC Stéphane Proulx 31.1%
  • NDP Raphaël Émond 1.9%
  • GPC Yves Laporte 0.9%
  • PPC François Sabourin 0.7%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 4.6%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.2%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.0%
    • 15 to 19 years 4.7%
    • 20 to 24 years 5.0%
    • 25 to 29 years 5.9%
    • 30 to 34 years 5.7%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.0%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.1%
    • 45 to 49 years 5.2%
    • 50 to 54 years 5.2%
    • 55 to 59 years 7.4%
    • 60 to 64 years 8.8%
    • 65 to 69 years 8.0%
    • 70 to 74 years 6.6%
    • 75 to 79 years 4.7%
    • 80 to 84 years 3.1%
    • 85 years and over 2.9%

Average age

45.3

Riding value

Median age

46.8

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.7

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.7

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $36,000

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 21.8%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

12.1%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.302

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 91,935

  • English only 0.3%
  • French only 75.5%
  • English and French 24.1%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 91,935

  • English 0.5%
  • French 96.1%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.3%
  • English and French 2.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.7%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 90,565

    • English 24.7%
    • French 99.7%
    • Indigenous languages 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 3.5%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 3.9%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 1.2%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 17.0%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $960
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,025

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 90,565

  • Non-immigrants 97.1%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.5%
  • Non-permanent residents 1.4%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 90,565

  • First generation 3.3%
  • Second generation 1.8%
  • Third generation or more 94.9%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 1,230

    • Principal applicants 33.3%
    • Secondary applicants 28.0%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 30.1%
  • Refugees 8.1%
  • Other immigrants 0

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Black 1.1%
    • Other (11 <1%) 1.2%
  • Not a visible minority 97.7%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 90,565

  • Canadian 40.9%
  • French, n.o.s. 19.8%
  • Québécois 15.9%
  • French Canadian 12.6%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 2.5%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 2.5%
  • Irish 2.2%
  • Métis 1.7%
  • Scottish 1.5%
  • Christian, n.i.e. 1.4%
  • Innu/Montagnais, n.o.s. 1.2%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.1%
  • Acadian 1.0%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 90,565

  • Buddhist 0.1%
    • Catholic 71.3%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 5.5%
    • Other (13 <1%) 1.0%
  • Hindu 0.0%
  • Jewish 0.0%
  • Muslim 0.7%
  • Sikh 0.0%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.0%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.3%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 21.2%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 17.9%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 20.2%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 44.2%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 17.8%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.8

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.4%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 14.6%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 7.6%
    • 3 Health occupations 9.7%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 13.2%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.0%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 24.9%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 18.0%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 2.2%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 4.6%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 91,935

  • English 1.0%
  • French 98.6%
  • English and French 0.3%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 91,935

    • Official languages 98.0%
    • Non-official languages 1.3%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.7%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 91,935

    • Official languages 98.8%
    • Non-official languages 0.6%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.6%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 91,935

  • None 97.4%
  • English 1.5%
  • French 0.4%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.4%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 1,370

  • Under 5 years 12.4%
  • 5 to 14 years 16.4%
  • 15 to 24 years 13.9%
  • 25 to 44 years 50.4%
  • 45 years and over 6.2%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 1,370

    • Brazil 0.7%
    • Colombia 3.3%
    • El Salvador 0
    • Guyana 0
    • Haiti 2.2%
    • Jamaica 0
    • Mexico 2.2%
    • Peru 1.5%
    • Trinidad and Tobago 0
    • United States of America 2.9%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 4.7%
    • France 25.5%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 5.5%
    • Germany 2.2%
    • Russian Federation 1.8%
    • Ukraine 1.8%
    • Italy 1.1%
    • Poland 1.1%
    • United Kingdom 1.1%
    • Other (8 <1%) 1.9%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 21.9%
    • Algeria 4.0%
    • Morocco 1.8%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 1.5%
    • Egypt 1.1%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.0%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 2.9%
    • China 2.2%
    • Iran 1.5%
    • Viet Nam 1.1%
    • Other (13 <1%) 2.5%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 280

    • Other places of birth in Americas 8.9%
    • Other (7 <1%) 1.8%
    • France 37.5%
    • Other (7 <1%) 0.0%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 12.5%
    • Cameroon 10.7%
    • Algeria 5.4%
    • Morocco 3.6%
    • Other (11 <1%) 3.5%
    • Other (22 <1%) 14.3%
    • Australia 0
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 1,230

  • Asylum claim before admission 2.0%
  • Work permits only before admission 13.4%
  • Study permits only before admission 5.3%
  • Work and study permits before admission 15.4%
  • Other permits before admission 0
  • No pre-admission experience 62.6%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 49,165

  • English 0.7%
  • French 90.2%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.0%
  • English and French 8.9%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 49,165

    • Official languages 98.9%
    • Non-official languages 0.0%
    • English and French 1.0%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.0%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 49,165

  • None 92.0%
  • English 6.9%
  • French 1.0%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 16,430

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 9.0%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 91.0%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 11,855

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 6.2%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 3.0%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 90.7%

RIDING ID · 202324018