Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

NB · ATL · RNB

Tobique-Mactaquac

Conservative Party of Canada projected to win by +16.5%.

CPC
Projected winner
CPC
Win prob 97.7%
Voters · 2025 39,691
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.22× (mod)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • CPC CPC
    97.7%
  • LPC LPC
    2.3%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • CPC CPC -6.4
    52.5% ±11.4
  • LPC LPC +0.1
    36.0% ±11.0
  • NDP NDP +4.3
    6.3% ±5.6
  • GPC GPC +1.8
    3.9% ±4.4
  • PPC PPC -0.3
    0.9% ±3.4
  • OTH OTH +0.5
    0.5% ±3.4

Past elections in Tobique-Mactaquac

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Conservative Party of Canada +22.9% — Richard Bragdon
39,691 votes
  • CPC Richard Bragdon 58.8% Won
  • LPC Julian Moulton 35.9%
  • NDP Michael John Winter 2.0%
  • GPC Liam MacDougall 2.0%
  • PPC Vern Brundle 1.2%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Tobique-Mactaquac demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 4.6%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.4%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.8%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.5%
    • 20 to 24 years 4.8%
    • 25 to 29 years 4.7%
    • 30 to 34 years 4.9%
    • 35 to 39 years 5.6%
    • 40 to 44 years 5.7%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.6%
    • 50 to 54 years 7.0%
    • 55 to 59 years 8.6%
    • 60 to 64 years 8.5%
    • 65 to 69 years 7.8%
    • 70 to 74 years 6.3%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.8%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.4%
    • 85 years and over 2.0%

Average age

44.3

Riding value

Median age

47.2

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.7

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.7

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $33,200

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 22.0%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

15.1%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.313

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 63,980

  • English only 86.4%
  • French only 0.2%
  • English and French 13.3%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 63,980

  • English 93.2%
  • French 1.6%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.8%
  • English and French 2.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 2.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 63,740

    • English 99.7%
    • French 13.9%
    • Indigenous languages 0.9%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 3.8%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 5.8%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 3.9%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 19.7%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $608
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $799

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 63,745

  • Non-immigrants 94.6%
    • Before 1980 1.6%
    • 2011 to 2021 1.4%
    • Other (3 <1%) 1.8%
  • Non-permanent residents 0.7%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 63,745

  • First generation 6.4%
  • Second generation 7.6%
  • Third generation or more 86.0%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 2,030

    • Principal applicants 29.6%
    • Secondary applicants 39.7%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 27.3%
  • Refugees 2.7%
  • Other immigrants 1.0%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • Other (12 <1%) 2.4%
  • Not a visible minority 97.6%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 63,740

  • English 27.5%
  • Scottish 26.3%
  • Irish 25.4%
  • Canadian 20.5%
  • French, n.o.s. 11.0%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 6.2%
  • German 5.6%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 3.1%
  • Dutch 2.9%
  • Welsh 2.9%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 2.8%
  • New Brunswicker 2.8%
  • Acadian 2.4%
  • European, n.o.s. 1.7%
  • Danish 1.6%
  • Maliseet 1.6%
  • American 1.5%
  • Italian 1.3%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 63,740

  • Buddhist 0.1%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 7.4%
    • Anabaptist 0.3%
    • Anglican 6.0%
    • Baptist 13.4%
    • Catholic 15.5%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.2%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.3%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 0.4%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 1.9%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 4.6%
    • Presbyterian 1.4%
    • Reformed 0.1%
    • United Church 6.4%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.2%
  • Hindu 0.3%
  • Jewish 0.1%
  • Muslim 0.2%
  • Sikh 0.2%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.3%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 0.6%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 38.1%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 18.7%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 33.5%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 31.5%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 16.3%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 41.4

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 0.9%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 14.2%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 5.8%
    • 3 Health occupations 8.0%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 12.2%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.0%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 21.9%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 22.0%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 5.6%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 5.5%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 63,980

  • English 95.7%
  • French 3.9%
  • English and French 0.2%
  • Neither English nor French 0.1%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 63,980

    • Official languages 95.7%
    • Non-official languages 3.0%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.3%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 63,980

    • Official languages 97.5%
    • Non-official languages 1.5%
    • Other (5 <1%) 1.0%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 63,980

  • None 96.6%
  • English 0.8%
  • French 1.4%
    • Indigenous 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.7%
  • English and French 0.0%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.1%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 3,040

  • Under 5 years 16.9%
  • 5 to 14 years 17.3%
  • 15 to 24 years 15.1%
  • 25 to 44 years 39.3%
  • 45 years and over 11.5%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 3,040

    • United States of America 30.3%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.0%
    • Colombia 1.3%
    • Other (8 <1%) 1.9%
    • United Kingdom 19.1%
    • Germany 7.9%
    • Netherlands 5.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 3.6%
    • Ukraine 1.3%
    • Other (11 <1%) 4.5%
    • South Africa, Republic of 1.2%
    • Other (9 <1%) 1.6%
    • Philippines 7.4%
    • India 4.1%
    • China 1.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.5%
    • Viet Nam 1.0%
    • Other (12 <1%) 2.3%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 2.0%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 560

    • United States of America 12.5%
    • Other (7 <1%) 0.9%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 13.4%
    • United Kingdom 10.7%
    • Ukraine 6.3%
    • Germany 2.7%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.0%
    • South Africa, Republic of 2.7%
    • Nigeria 1.8%
    • Other (13 <1%) 1.8%
    • Philippines 20.5%
    • India 13.4%
    • China 4.5%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.8%
    • Other (18 <1%) 2.7%
    • Australia 4.5%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 2,030

  • Asylum claim before admission 0
  • Work permits only before admission 28.8%
  • Study permits only before admission 4.4%
  • Work and study permits before admission 6.4%
  • Other permits before admission 3.7%
  • No pre-admission experience 56.4%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 34,720

  • English 94.1%
  • French 0.7%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.0%
  • English and French 4.5%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 34,720

    • Official languages 99.2%
    • Non-official languages 0.1%
    • Other (5 <1%) 0.7%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 34,720

  • None 95.4%
  • English 0.6%
  • French 3.4%
    • Indigenous 0.2%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.3%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 12,630

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 9.5%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 90.5%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 9,490

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.9%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 4.7%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 90.4%

RIDING ID · 202313010