Last updated: May 12, 2026 at 1:06 PM

NB · ATL · UNB

Fredericton-Oromocto

Liberal Party of Canada projected to win by +32.8%.

LPC
Projected winner
LPC
Win prob 100.0%
Voters · 2025 50,081
Effective n 70
Uncertainty 1.08× (mod)

Win probability

Chance of winning this seat

  • LPC LPC
    100.0%

Projected vote share

Forecast with ±MoE, 95% CI as ticks, dashed baseline = previous

  • LPC LPC -2.1
    59.1% ±10.4
  • CPC CPC -6.0
    26.4% ±9.3
  • NDP NDP +5.0
    6.8% ±5.3
  • GPC GPC +2.7
    5.8% ±5.0
  • OTH OTH +0.2
    1.3% ±3.2
  • PPC PPC +0.2
    0.7% ±3.2

Past elections in Fredericton-Oromocto

Candidate roster, votes, and margins from previous elections

Full archive →

2025

Liberal Party of Canada +29.0% — David Myles
50,081 votes
  • LPC David Myles 61.3% Won
  • CPC Brian Macdonald 32.3%
  • GPC Pam Allen-Leblanc 3.1%
  • NDP Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane 1.8%
  • CFP Dominic Cardy 0.7%
  • PPC Heather Michaud 0.4%
  • COM-ML June Patterson 0.3%
  • CENT Brandon Ellis 0.1%

Candidates

Running in this riding

No candidates announced yet

Fredericton-Oromocto demographics

High-importance census indicators the model tracks. Click a row with a chevron to drill into its breakdown.

Age groups

    • 0 to 4 years 4.7%
    • 5 to 9 years 5.7%
    • 10 to 14 years 5.4%
    • 15 to 19 years 5.5%
    • 20 to 24 years 8.2%
    • 25 to 29 years 7.8%
    • 30 to 34 years 7.0%
    • 35 to 39 years 6.9%
    • 40 to 44 years 6.4%
    • 45 to 49 years 6.1%
    • 50 to 54 years 5.8%
    • 55 to 59 years 6.3%
    • 60 to 64 years 5.9%
    • 65 to 69 years 5.4%
    • 70 to 74 years 4.9%
    • 75 to 79 years 3.3%
    • 80 to 84 years 2.4%
    • 85 years and over 2.2%

Average age

40.7

Riding value

Median age

39.2

Riding value

Average size of census families

2.8

Riding value

Average number of children in census families with children

1.7

Riding value

Income statistics in 2020 for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

    • Median after-tax income in 2020 among recipients ($) $37,600

Composition of total income in 2020

  • Government transfers (%) 15.9%

Prevalence of low income based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT) (%)

11.5%

Riding value

Inequality measures for the population in private households

  • Gini index on adjusted household total income 0.311

Knowledge of official languages for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 84,045

  • English only 74.6%
  • French only 0.5%
  • English and French 24.4%
  • Neither English nor French 0.5%

All languages spoken at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 84,045

  • English 82.8%
  • French 3.1%
    • Indigenous 0.0%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.4%
  • English and French 4.7%
  • English and non-official language(s) 6.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.6%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.2%

Knowledge of languages for the population in private households

n = 83,605

    • English 99.1%
    • French 24.8%
    • Indigenous languages 0.4%
    • Non-Indigenous languages 12.2%

Indigenous identity for the population in private households

  • Indigenous identity 5.0%

Registered or Treaty Indian status for the population in private households

  • Registered or Treaty Indian 3.0%

Occupied private dwellings by housing indicators

  • Total - Households 'spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs' or 'not suitable' or 'major repairs needed' 24.0%

Owner households in non-farm, non-reserve private dwellings

  • Median monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,060
  • Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) $1,178

Immigrant status and period of immigration for the population in private households

n = 83,605

  • Non-immigrants 87.4%
    • Before 1980 1.7%
    • 1980 to 1990 0.5%
    • 1991 to 2000 0.8%
    • 2001 to 2010 1.8%
    • 2011 to 2021 5.7%
  • Non-permanent residents 2.1%

Generation status for the population in private households

n = 83,610

  • First generation 13.8%
  • Second generation 9.0%
  • Third generation or more 77.3%

Admission category and applicant type for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 7,335

    • Principal applicants 24.9%
    • Secondary applicants 42.3%
  • Immigrants sponsored by family 14.5%
  • Refugees 18.3%
  • Other immigrants 0.1%

Visible minority for the population in private households

    • South Asian 2.4%
    • Black 2.3%
    • Arab 1.9%
    • Chinese 1.5%
    • Other (8 <1%) 3.2%
  • Not a visible minority 88.7%

Ethnic or cultural origin for the population in private households

n = 83,605

  • Irish 26.6%
  • Scottish 24.8%
  • English 24.5%
  • Canadian 16.8%
  • French, n.o.s. 13.1%
  • German 6.1%
  • Acadian 5.6%
  • Caucasian (White), n.o.s. 4.9%
  • British Isles, n.o.s. 3.6%
  • Dutch 2.9%
  • Welsh 2.9%
  • First Nations (North American Indian), n.o.s. 2.4%
  • European, n.o.s. 2.2%
  • New Brunswicker 2.2%
  • Chinese 1.6%
  • Italian 1.4%
  • Indian (India) 1.2%
  • Ukrainian 1.2%
  • French Canadian 1.2%
  • American 1.1%
  • Mi'kmaq, n.o.s. 1.1%
  • Maliseet 1.1%

Religion for the population in private households

n = 83,605

  • Buddhist 0.3%
    • Christian, n.o.s. 7.4%
    • Anabaptist 0
    • Anglican 5.6%
    • Baptist 6.3%
    • Catholic 20.6%
    • Christian Orthodox 0.4%
    • Jehovah's Witness 0.1%
    • Latter Day Saints 0.1%
    • Lutheran 0.2%
    • Methodist and Wesleyan (Holiness) 0.8%
    • Pentecostal and other Charismatic 1.6%
    • Presbyterian 1.0%
    • Reformed 0.1%
    • United Church 6.0%
    • Other Christian and Christian-related traditions 2.4%
  • Hindu 1.1%
  • Jewish 0.2%
  • Muslim 2.9%
  • Sikh 0.3%
  • Traditional (North American Indigenous) spirituality 0.1%
  • Other religions and spiritual traditions 1.0%
  • No religion and secular perspectives 41.4%

Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 15 years and over in private households

  • No certificate, diploma or degree 10.7%
  • High (secondary) school diploma or equivalency certificate 28.8%
    • Postsecondary certificate or diploma below bachelor level 25.7%
    • Bachelor's degree or higher 34.8%

Population aged 15 years and over by work activity during the reference year

    • Average weeks worked in reference year 42.5

Labour force aged 15 years and over by occupation - Broad category - National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2021

    • 0 Legislative and senior management occupations 1.2%
    • 1 Business, finance and administration occupations 16.4%
    • 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 10.8%
    • 3 Health occupations 7.9%
    • 4 Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services 21.0%
    • 5 Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 2.9%
    • 6 Sales and service occupations 24.9%
    • 7 Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 10.2%
    • 8 Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations 1.3%
    • 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 1.4%

First official language spoken for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 84,045

  • English 91.4%
  • French 7.4%
  • English and French 0.8%
  • Neither English nor French 0.4%

Mother tongue for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 84,045

    • Official languages 88.5%
    • Non-official languages 8.7%
    • English and French 1.5%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.2%
    • Other (3 <1%) 0.2%

Language spoken most often at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 84,045

    • Official languages 92.5%
    • Non-official languages 5.1%
    • English and non-official language(s) 1.4%
    • Other (4 <1%) 1.0%

Other language(s) spoken regularly at home for the total population excluding institutional residents

n = 84,045

  • None 90.4%
  • English 3.0%
  • French 3.0%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 2.4%
  • English and French 0.1%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.3%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.3%

Age at immigration for the immigrant population in private households

n = 8,720

  • Under 5 years 11.4%
  • 5 to 14 years 21.4%
  • 15 to 24 years 14.0%
  • 25 to 44 years 46.2%
  • 45 years and over 6.9%

Place of birth for the immigrant population in private households

n = 8,720

    • United States of America 8.2%
    • Other places of birth in Americas 1.9%
    • Other (9 <1%) 2.7%
    • United Kingdom 9.9%
    • Germany 2.4%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 2.4%
    • Ukraine 1.9%
    • Russian Federation 1.5%
    • Netherlands 1.3%
    • Other (10 <1%) 4.1%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 4.6%
    • Egypt 3.6%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 2.1%
    • Nigeria 1.8%
    • Other (6 <1%) 2.1%
    • Afghanistan 0
    • Iran 2.8%
    • Iraq 0.7%
    • Lebanon 2.7%
    • Syria 5.9%
    • Turkey 0.6%
    • China 7.9%
    • Hong Kong 0.6%
    • Korea, South 2.0%
    • Taiwan 0.1%
    • Philippines 6.8%
    • Viet Nam 1.7%
    • Bangladesh 2.0%
    • India 6.1%
    • Pakistan 1.9%
    • Sri Lanka 0.2%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 7.1%
  • Oceania and other places of birth 0.5%

Place of birth for the recent immigrant population in private households

n = 3,645

    • Other places of birth in Americas 2.5%
    • United States of America 2.2%
    • Other (6 <1%) 2.3%
    • Ukraine 2.9%
    • Russian Federation 2.7%
    • United Kingdom 1.5%
    • Other places of birth in Europe 1.1%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.6%
    • Egypt 6.6%
    • Nigeria 4.0%
    • Congo, Democratic Republic of the 3.4%
    • Other places of birth in Africa 2.9%
    • Burundi 1.6%
    • Other (10 <1%) 3.4%
    • Afghanistan 0
    • Bangladesh 2.7%
    • China 7.1%
    • Hong Kong 0
    • India 9.1%
    • Iran 2.3%
    • Iraq 0
    • Israel 1.5%
    • Japan 0
    • Jordan 0.8%
    • Korea, South 0.8%
    • Lebanon 1.8%
    • Nepal 1.8%
    • Pakistan 2.6%
    • Philippines 9.7%
    • Saudi Arabia 1.9%
    • Sri Lanka 0
    • Syria 13.7%
    • Turkey 0.8%
    • United Arab Emirates 2.1%
    • Viet Nam 1.6%
    • Other places of birth in Asia 1.2%
    • Australia 0.4%
    • Other places of birth 0

Pre-admission experience for the immigrant population in private households who were admitted between 1980 and 2021

n = 7,335

  • Asylum claim before admission 1.0%
  • Work permits only before admission 11.5%
  • Study permits only before admission 5.1%
  • Work and study permits before admission 8.2%
  • Other permits before admission 0.5%
  • No pre-admission experience 73.8%

All languages used at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 49,680

  • English 87.6%
  • French 1.1%
    • Indigenous 0
    • Non-Indigenous 0.1%
  • English and French 10.2%
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.9%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0.2%
  • Multiple non-official languages 0

Language used most often at work for the population aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020, in private households, 2021 Census

n = 49,680

    • Official languages 98.2%
    • Non-official languages 0.2%
    • English and French 1.5%
    • Other (4 <1%) 0.1%

Other language(s) used regularly at work for the population in private households aged 15 years and over who worked since January 1, 2020

n = 49,680

  • None 90.3%
  • English 1.1%
  • French 7.8%
    • Indigenous 0.1%
    • Non-Indigenous 0.6%
  • English and French 0
  • English and non-official language(s) 0.0%
  • French and non-official language(s) 0.1%
  • English, French and non-official language(s) 0
  • Multiple non-official languages 0.0%

Eligibility for instruction in the minority official language for the population in private households born in 2003 or later

n = 16,420

  • Children eligible for instruction in the minority official language 19.8%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 80.2%

Eligibility and instruction in the minority official language, for the population in private households born between 2003 and 2015 (inclusive)

n = 12,120

    • Eligible children who have been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 13.9%
    • Eligible children who have not been instructed in the minority official language at the primary or secondary level in Canada 6.0%
  • Children not eligible for instruction in the minority official language 80.1%

RIDING ID · 202313003